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Is California Still Blue With the Rise of the Independent Voter—and Will They Be Pivotal in the Democratic Primary for President?

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a two page “Just the Facts” sheet reporting on the increasing share of “Decline to State” voters—those who have not chosen to affiliate with a political party and now amount to 19% of all registered voters in the state as compared to just 9% in 1988. They posit that these non-affiliated voters, more moderate than those registered with either the Democratic or Republican parties have divided loyalties and can influence elections and explore just exactly who these key players are demographically and in terms of political philosophy.

While DTS voters can be pivotal in California elections, however, these statistics, along with the actual election results for a number of years appear to this observer to show that at least for the present California is a decidedly blue or Democratic state.

While a plurality—39%-- of independents describe themselves as moderate-- and the remainder splits 31% liberal and 30% conservative (basically statistically insignificant , if one looks at the their leanings towards the major parties and combines that with the Democratic registration advantage over Republicans, that appears to be where matters stand—at least for the present.

43% of Californians are registered Democrats and 34% are Republicans. As registration figures go, this gives the Democrats a 9 point advantage. When the 19% of those registered are asked which party they lean towards, 43% respond the Democratic Party and only 30% indicate the Republican Party, with another 27% volunteering neither party. Within these independents who have a leaning, that gives Democrats a 13 point advantage. Put another way, those independent voters who don’t lean are only 5% of all of those registered—not enough to offset the 9 point advantage Democrats go in with in light of those registered with either major party, not to mention the edge in the leaning independents.

Most of these DTS votes disapprove of Bush and approve of Schwarzenegger. They also approve of Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. 56% voted for Kerrey-Edwards amd 54% voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger, but neither of these elections would have ended up differently had they not voted.
The November partisan elections are a ways off, but trends here in California will not change that much in the intervening 10 months. So, the question is—what are these independent voters, who may vote in the Democratic primary for President on February 5 likely to do, and will they have an impact?

Mark Baldassare, the President and CEO of the PPIC says that “historically, they have been less likely to participate in primaries, which draw upon the party faithful.”

This year, however, there has been a heightened discussion amongst news reporters and pundits of the role that independent voters have played in the early caucuses and primaries. And it appears that they are more likely to support Barack Obama from previous California polls and the results in other states. So, it’s worthwhile to ask who they are.

The PPIC reports:

“Independents (23%) have more likely voters in the 18‐24 year‐old age group than Democrats (17%) or Republicans (14%), while Republicans (44%) and Democrats (42%) are more likely than independents (32%) to be age 55 and older. A slightly larger share of independents (59%) than Republicans (54%) are male, while the majority of likely voters among Democrats are women (58%). Independents (57%) are slightly more likely than Democrats or Republicans (53% each) to have college degrees.”

The answer is—in a close primary election, they can make the difference as to who wins the Democratic race for delegates and the statewide mantle of victory. We’ll just have to see if they turn out to vote, and I’m not going to hazard a guess in this difficult year to predict results before all the votes are counted.

Posted on January 17, 2008

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