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California Field Poll to Bloomberg: Don’t Run for President Expecting to Win This State
By Frank D. Russo
In a dizzying week of polls on all subjects near and dear to our state’s voters, today’s offering from the California Field Poll showing that only one in four California registered voters would even consider voting for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he were to run for President sends a clear message.
62% of the voters in the largest state in the nation, according to Field, say they “would definitely not support him.” [Emphasis added] This includes 68% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans and even a slight plurality of “non-partisan/others) would not countenance the thought.
The poll also shows a low favorable and a high unfavorable image rating for Bloomberg in California’s registered voters who have an opinion of him at all. A full 48% have no opinion, and he has a 14% favorable and 38% unfavorable rating overall. This includes not only Democrats and Republicans but the non-partisan/others, who in a small sample size are his most favorable at 16% with 38% unfavorable.
When asked if a Bloomberg independent candidacy would be a good thing or bad thing, California’s registered voters are perhaps a bit more charitable, but they are all over the lot. 29% thin it is a good thing, 33% a bad thing, and 38% don’t know. Democrats and Republicans agree it’s a bad thing or don’t know, and the non-partisan/others seem to like the idea 47% to 17% with 36% of this most favorable group towards his candidacy saying they don’t know.
Field’s findings are from a survey they have taken of 496 registered voters in California between January 14 and 20 which has a range of error of 4.5%.
Results released earlier in the week from Field show strong favorable ratings for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominees, running at least 5 to 1 in the Democratic base of registered Democrats and independents who can vote in the California Democratic primary. California Republican voters in a separate release of Field’s poll are not as favorably inclined towards their potential choices,
In yet another poll released today from the Public Policy Institute of California, as we wrote about in another article, there is a palpable and quantifiable greater satisfaction of California’s Democrats with their choices of Presidential candidates than Republicans in the state. This is in accord with polls and turnout results from other states that have had primaries or caucuses.
All in all, this poll result and others are a good omen for the Democratic nominee in the General Election in California and across the country as well. California has 55 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
Comments
That's some pretty weak logic. Any major party candidate would love to have their numbers start at 25% before they even anounced or launched a campaign. If that's the floor where his numbers start at on day one, the major parties batter look out.
Run Mike Run -
Michael Bloomberg for President
http://www.RunMikeRun.com
Posted by: ChrisG at January 26, 2008 07:15 AM
Ghris: Read the poll. I appreciate the fact that you want Bllomberg to run as you have identified at the end of your comment.
It says that this 25% would "consider" voting for him. And 62% say they will "definitely not." That 62% is much higher than any candidate for the Democratic or Republican nomination.
Posted by: Frank D. Russo at January 26, 2008 09:21 AM
Frak,
The fact is, both parties don't want him to run. Certainly not a Progressive Action Committee such as yourself. Your candidate has to win California, or they cannot win the election, period.
Both parties are terrified by the possibility of Bloomberg stepping in as a "spoiler", and nobody is quite sure who he hurts more, nor do they wish to consider the possibility that he could actually win.
Additionally, to somehow attempt to portray your organization as unbiassed, and "above it", when you have your Obama endorsement running right along side this article is somewhat disingenuous.
-Chris
Posted by: ChrisG at January 26, 2008 01:32 PM
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