California Field Poll Shows Clinton Ahead of Obama 39% to 27% in State

One-fifth of both the vote by mail and day of election precinct voters are undecided. The small share of Edwards supporters—10% of the vote would break more for Obama (29%) than Clinton (11%) if he were to drop out of the race (for instance if he has a poor showing in South Carolina) but are not enough to help Obama in anything other than a close election.

Clinton leads Obama by large margins amongst women (43% to 24%), Latinos (59% to 19%), seniors (40% to 18%), non-college graduates, and those with household incomes less than $80,000 per year. Obama leads amongst blacks (a small sample size—58% to 24%), college grads (36% to 29%), and those with household incomes above $80,000.

Clinton has a strong lead over Obama—40% to 27% amongst Democratic likely voters and a narrow 4% lead of 37% to 33%—within the margin of error—with the non-partisan voters expected to turn out. Field predicts that these non registered Democrats will amount to 12% of the total vote—down a little from the 13% in the December survey. Obama was expected to win this segment of the vote and needs to do so in order to have a chance at winning the primary.

Field asked voters about 6 personal characteristics and whether Clinton or Obama have them. Clinton has a strong advantage in 5 of them: that she has the right experience, has the best chance of winning the November general election, best represents what the Democratic Party stands for, will be able to unite the U.S., and cares about people like you. Obama prevailed as the candidate who best represents change.

The most important issues to likely voters in the Democratic primary are health care, the war in Iraq, and jobs and the economy—each with about the same level of importance. These are followed by foreign policy, illegal immigration, taxes and the terrorist threat. Out of those issues, Clinton voters see jobs and the economy as the most important and Obama voters see the Iraq War and foreign policy as the most important.

As we slide into a recession, the shift away from Iraq as the main issue to the economy having equal importance, may be helping Clinton as she is associated with the prosperous boom times the country had under Bill Clinton.

Dan Walters has opined in a column this morning that Clinton may have the race wrapped up in California. As I see it, she definitely has an advantage and a lead at this point, but the race is still up for grabs—especially the delegates.

The statewide winner has bragging rights and should get the most delegates, but the bulk of the action here takes place locally in each of our state’s 53 Congressional Districts. A full 241 of California’s 441 delegates are elected based on the share of the vote the candidates for President receive in these districts for candidates with over 15% of the vote. Both of the two leading candidates will surely be competitive in all or virtually all of these districts. Only 81 delegates are elected “at-large” and go to the winner of the statewide vote.

Elections are determined by those who vote. Today is the last day to register. Re-registering is necessary whenever you move, change your name, or change your political party affiliation. You can download a voter registration form here and mail it in today (must be postmarked January 22nd) or deliver it in person to your local County Registrar of Voters.