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Breaking News: John Edwards Withdrawing From Presidential Race—His Supporters May Decide California Primary Election if Close

By Frank D. Russo

A formal announcement will be made shortly by John Edwards that he is dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president. According to published accounts, he will not immediately announce his support for one of the other two candidates who this contest now boils down to: Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Edwards, pictured above, being greeted by California Democratic Party Chair Art Torres before giving a rip-roaring speech at the California Democratic convention in San Diego last April, won the hearts and minds of many delegates with a speech that impressed and resonated in the hall. He spoke forthrightly about poverty in the United States, a life time passion of his that he has committed himself to as an attorney. He also spoke strongly against the War in Iraq. At the time, I wrote:

“Presidential candidate John Edwards spoke to the California Democratic Convention in San Diego yesterday starting and ending with strong words about what is probably the single most important issues to our state's primary voters--the war in Iraq. His 23 minutes speech was interrupted by applause on a number of occasions, especially when he talked about the war.”

He had the strong support of many of those who are active in the California Democratic Party, even as his poll numbers and fundraising lagged. Many of his supporters were dogged and continued to phone bank, walk precincts, and talk to their neighbors about his campaign.

Although he registered support from only 10% of likely voters surveyed in the last California Field Poll, taken between January 14 and 20 (a seeming eternity ago), those of his supporters who have not already cast ballots by mail could have a substantial impact on the California primary results in a tightening race.

According to Field:

“If Edwards, who is running a distant third with 10% of voter preferences, were to drop out of the race, more than twice as many of his supporters say they would prefer Obama (29%) than Clinton (11%). Another 12% would favor other candidates, while nearly half (48%) are undecided.”

Since then other Democratic candidates have dropped out of the race. If Edwards’ supporters break for Obama over Clinton this could give Obama the edge he needs to win California.

That process may have already started happening a couple of weeks ago when Sacramento area Senator Darrell Steinberg switched from Edwards to Obama and indicated the similarities between the candidates in an article on these pages: “Why I ‘m Supporting Barack Obama for President.” Another Sacramentan, long active in politics, just yesterday urged Edwards supporters to switch to Obama. An endorsement by Edwards of one candidate or the other could also have significant sway in the final days leading up to Super Tuesday.

The photo above is from Randy Bayne, Chair of the Democratic Party in Amado County, and a big Edwards supporter who has written regularly about the Edwards campaign on his site and who wrote an article for us earlier this month on his speeches for Edwards in the Sierra Foothills.

Posted on January 30, 2008

Comments

Extremely disappointed that he's droppoing ou. I cannot support Clinton (DLC Democrat who votes with Republicans) or Obama (who wants to push baby boomers out of the way. I am concerned that he will support privatization of social security to save it. What is his position on Edwards' proposal to lift the cap on th [payroll tax?)

Posted by: Gloria at January 30, 2008 08:33 AM

To answer the comment by Gloria (From barackobama.com) [the short answer is "yes" he supports lifting the cap, among doing other things]:

"Obama will protect Social Security benefits for current and future beneficiaries alike. And he does not believe it is necessary or fair to hardworking seniors to raise the retirement age. Obama is strongly opposed to privatizing Social Security." ... "Currently, the Social Security payroll tax applies to only the first $97,500 a worker makes. Obama supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security and he will work with Congress and the American people to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for at least the next half century." ... "Obama will eliminate all income taxation of seniors making less than $50,000 per year. This will provide an immediate tax cut averaging $1,400 to 7 million seniors and relieve millions from the burden of filing tax returns."

Posted by: Scott at January 30, 2008 09:16 AM

Obama "wants to push baby boomers out of the way"? Or "privatize social security to save it?"

Firstly, Obama has never dismissed or denegrated baby boomers. The only ones he wants to push out of the way are the ones currently occupying the White House. Just because he's not a "baby boomer" doesn't mean he dislikes them...I mean, come on!

Secondly, no Democrat would ever advocate privatizing social security. That is a uniquely Republican/libertarian plan.

Additionally, privatizing social security would not "save it" but would exacerbate the trustfund shortfall by allowing a percentage of social security receipts to be diverted into a personal savings account.

Edwards and Obama have the same Social Security plan, which is to raise the cap on income that is taxable for social security. Clinton opposes the change, stating that it would be a "trillion dollar tax increase" on those making more than $97,000 a year.

Posted by: Ryan at January 30, 2008 12:09 PM

Our ticket:

President: Barack Obama

Vice President: John Edwards

Senate Majority Leader: Hillary Clinton

Book Tour: Bill Clinton

-- Dick

Posted by: Dick Price & Sharon Kyle at January 30, 2008 12:18 PM

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