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A Look at the Numbers: What the Early Caucuses and Primaries Mean in the Democratic Presidential Race and Why the California Primary Matters
By Frank D. Russo
The race for the Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. While making any predictions in this year’s volatile and late decided elections has proved many a pundit and pollster wrong, one thing is for certain: California and the rest of the states that vote on February 5 are going to matter a great deal in deciding who gets the nomination.
Looking strictly at the numbers and putting all the spin aside, with the first three state contests concluded, one of the leading Democratic candidates for President has received about 7,400 votes more than the other, hardly a significant difference. That candidate has won two more delegates than the other through the electoral process, hardly a predictor at all.
Let’s look at the raw vote total so far: In Iowa, an analysis shows that Obama received about 21,510 more votes than Clinton. It takes an analysis because the Iowa Democratic Party does not release actual vote totals, but Obama, in winning that race by a margin of 38% to 29% over Clinton, received about 90,820 votes to her 69,310 based on a turnout of 239,000 Democrats.
Clinton won the New Hampshire primary over Obama by a 39% to 37% margin—or 7000 votes.
Clinton won the Nevada caucuses by what appears to be 6440 votes. Based on a turnout of 116,000 Democrats, as reported in today’s New York Times, an analysis shows that Clinton at 51% received about 54,590 votes to Obama’s 45% or 48,150—or a difference of 6,440 votes—not a tremendous amount.
Add all these numbers together and Barack Obama has about 7,400 more votes than Hillary Clinton—just not a significant difference. Their campaigns can spin these results any way they want, but the difference is de minimus.
The same can be said for the actual delegates won: Obama won 16 delegates in Iowa, to Clinton’s 15 and Edward’s 14. Both Clinton and Obama garnered 9 delegates in New Hampshire to Edward’s 4 delegates. And yesterday, Obama won 13 delegates to Clinton’s 12. Add them up and as far as elected delegates go, Obama has 38, Clinton 36, and Edwards 28 so far. Hardly an indication that the Democratic nomination is determined or even going in a certain direction.
I do think John Edwards, unless he pulls a surprising upset in South Carolina is toast. His 4% showing in Nevada indicates a slipping campaign. He has little in the way of campaign funds to mount a campaign on Super Tuesday and is slipping in all the polls.
The California Field poll has been interviewing Californians on their preferences for President and should be released soon. It will be an accurate snapshot of what registered voters have told them. Many have already voted by mail—but turnout and those last minute decisions on Election Day will probably determine the election.
Some candidate will claim a bump from the South Carolina primary next Saturday. The spinning will continue to be fierce.
My hope is that both campaigns work hard to get their vote out. In the three elections so far, the Democratic turnout has been significantly higher than the Republican turnout—not a bad omen for November and in line with polls that have shown Democrats are happier with their choices than Republicans.
Remember--voter registration ends this Tuesday. And let’s have a record turnout in California for a Democratic nominee as we have had in the first three states so far.
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