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Prop 93 (Term Limits Change) Keeps Lead in Field Poll—(Props 94-97) Expansion of Indian Slot Machines Close

Most Likely Voters Have Not Seen, Read, or Heard Anything About Ballot Props--Campaigns Will Be Key

By Frank D. Russo

The Field Poll released yesterday shows Proposition 93, shows the legislative term limits change, Prop 93, ahead by a 50% to 32% margin amongst likely voters when read a description of the measure. A full 18% of those likely to start voting are undecided. What’s even more significant is that only 25% of likely voters reported they had “seen, read, or heard anything about the term limit proposition.

As to the referenda on the massive expansion of tribal slot machines, Propositions 94 to 97, likely voters are narrowly in favor by 39% to 33%, with a very large undecided 28% of those likely to vote. Only 27% of likely voters report they have seen, read, or heard anything about these propositions.

Ballots for those who vote by mail will start arriving within the next two weeks, and these Field results show that these proposition are very much in play in the February 5, 2008 California presidential primary ballot. The well funded campaigns for and against these propositions—with direct mail, slate pieces, television and radio ads--will make the difference on these measures.

The term limits change, Prop 93, results from this poll, taken December 10 through 17, are virtually identical to those found in the October survey, and this is good news for those favoring a change. However, looking at the subset of voters, when the campaigns are finished and the votes counted, there will probably be some shifts amongst the partisan and other breakdowns. The measure leads in all regions of the state except that voters in the progressive San Francisco Bay Area are split evenly. Democrats favor the measure by a 47% to 37% margin, Republicans by a whopping 56% to 29%, and non-partisan/others by 47% to 25%. The measure is likely to see increased Democratic support and decreased Republican support.

What’s interesting in these results on slot machines is the greater support amongst younger voters, the poor (those with less than $20,000 of annual household income) and those with little education—and the increasing opposition with age, income, and education.

There also is a large gender gap, with men in favor by 46% to 32% with women evenly divided at 34% to 34%.

Get ready for the campaign barrage, trying to break through the voters’ main focus on the Presidential candidates. Turnout could also be key here.

Posted on December 28, 2007

Comments

Mr. Russo,
I am offended by your reference to Prop's 94-97 as "a referenda on the massive expansion of tribal slot machines". I respect your difference in opinion of course, but as a journalist, you should not let such blatant bias into your writing. As a reasonably rational member of the American public, I cannot help but question your integrity as a writer. This website is advertised as a political "Progress Report"-which, according to good old Webster's means "a report of work accomplished during a specified time period", in case you've forgotten. I see no clause that induces the reporter to append their own bigotry. As an ardent believer that the American government has barely begun their retribution to the American Indian population for the atrocities of the Trail of Tears, I demand you retract your statement, as it imposes your own beliefs onto your readers. On more moral grounds, I beg you to reconsider your analysis of the situation, but regardless, as a journalist you have a duty to uphold the Code of Ethics. Don't forget this duty, or don't write.

Posted by: Michelle Arc at January 6, 2008 01:15 PM

Michelle: I stand by my statement and do not understand why you are offended or find the statement you quote as offensive.

It is a massive expansion of slot machines. It is at tribal casinos. There is absolutely nothing bigoted in the statement--in fact, I voted for the original ballot proposition in California that authorized gambling on tribal lands.

You are entitled to your beliefs and opinions. I am not imposing my beliefs on anyone. But I am calling the shots as I see them.

Your "demand" is not one I am going to acquiesce in and I stand by the statement and characterization as accurate.

Posted by: Frank D. Russo at January 6, 2008 01:46 PM

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