Nearly 3-1 Support for Health Care Reform Passed by Assembly in New California Field Poll

• It is ahead by lopsided margins in all age categories. The closest category is the 65 and older set of voters where it is ahead 55% to 27%.

• It is ahead in all race/ethnic groupings by 3-1 margins except for the White (non-Hispanic) group where it “only” leads 62% to 25% (a 37 point margin even in this least supportive group).

• It has its strongest support from those with household incomes of less than $20,000 per year—69% to 16% and in all other income categories.

Perhaps most significantly, there is a direct correlation between how closely those interviewed say they are following health reform efforts and the level of support, but the measure has strong support amongst those at all levels of interest. By a margin of 69% to 23%, those who are “following very closely” favor it. In the segment of voters who are “following not at all closely” (13% of all voters) is leads by its narrowest margin, 55% to 26%.

Those that follow this issue the closest are likely to be the “opinion leaders” in public debates and should boost its chances in the Fall of 2008.

It is very interesting to look at what these voters told Field (in their own words) were there reasons in support or opposition to the health care package. The top three reasons for support (and the only ones that were more than single digit responses) were:

• Everyone needs insurance/you could get wiped out without insurance 38%

• Something needs to be done/the system is broken/needs to be changed 19%

• It gets more people insured/broadens coverage/gets us closer to universal coverage for everyone 16%

The top 3 reasons for opposing it and also the only responses that were above single digits were:

• Too much state involvement/oppose socialized medicine/not fair to taxpayers 26%

• People shouldn't be forced to get insurance/oppose mandating insurance 15%

• Too much of a burden on small business/many employers wouldn't be able to afford it/ties the hands of business 11%

This package is opposed by many who are on the left—and want to see single payer—and opposed by many on the right—who want government to do precious little on health care and want “the free market” to have a free rein in this area. What is most significant is the fact that of the voters who oppose the health reform package (23%) only 8% of those voters cite the reason that it “doesn’t go far enough/ a band aid approach/prefer single-payer/make it more like Canada.” While there are concerns in the reasons for opposition that can be lumped into this concern of the left, including the 15% of the opposition who say people should not be forced to get insurance and those who have concern about its affordability (9%), by far the biggest reason is the “socialized medicine” response and other reasons given by those on the right. This is not surprising, given the measures greater support by Democrats and non-partisan others and the lesser degree of support by Republicans.

In fact, if one looks at the cross tabs of this poll published online in the Sacramento Bee (Capitol Alert—available by free subscription), the measure has its lowest support from “strong conservatives”, 47% to 40%, and surprisingly, its highest support from those who categorize themselves as “strong liberals”, 79% to 11%. It has support from moderate conservatives 56% to 30%, middle-of-the-road votes by 65% to 21%, and moderate liberals by 71% to 18%.

Cigarette Tax is Most Favored Funding Source

Since the financing of this plan will be voted on in a ballot initiative in the November 2008 presidential election, it is clear why this tax has been chosen by the Governor, the Speaker, and other architects of this package. It has by far the largest support and least opposition from the voters.

By a two-to-one margin--63% to 33%, the cigarette tax is favored. This is stronger than issuing bonds against future lottery proceeds (57% to 41%), increasing the sales tax by 1% (46% to 50%), and leasing the operations of the state lottery (42% to 46%).

In fact, the support for the cigarette tax lopsidedly comes from those who favor it “strongly.” 50% say they favor it strongly and 13% say they favor it “somewhat.” Most of those against it, are opposed “strongly” (25%) and 8% are opposed “somewhat.” Only 4% have no opinion. Starting out with 50% in the strong category is not a bad place to begin. Having money from the large coalition in support of the health care package to counter the expected heavy tobacco industry ads in opposition to the ballot measure gives this measure an opportunity to come out differently from the last tobacco tax on the ballot, Prop 63.

For more information on the Field Poll, check out the numbers at the Field site or the Sacramento Bee’s Capitol Alert.