Clinton Can No Longer Count on California Win in Primary as Race Narrows According to Field Poll

Both Clinton and Obama are seen favorably by likely Democratic voters, Obama perhaps a bit more so with 76% to 13% favorable to unfavorable to Clinton’s 76% to 18%, but both high numbers. Obama clearly has an edge amongst “non-partisan/other voters,” many of whom can vote in the Democratic primary. He has a 70% to 15% favorable rating and Clinton enjoys a 59% to 33% favorable rating.

Field’s model has 13% of those participating in the Democratic primary as coming from those who are not registered with a party (the “decline to state” or DTS voters). In that segment of the vote, Obama has a lead of 305 to 27% over Clinton, within the margin of error of the poll (higher with this smaller group than the overall 4.7% margin of error). Clinton has the edge with voters who are registered Democrats 38% to 21%.

Clinton leads in all for regions of the state, but has dropped in three of those regions—from 50% in Los Angeles County to 38%, from 44% in “other Southern California” to 44%, and from 50% in the San Francisco Bay Area to 39%. Her support in “other Northern California” remains constant at 31%.

There is a huge gender gap here—Clinton has a commanding 41% to 21% lead with women voters. She has a much narrower lead with men—305 to 24% over Obama. Curiously, Field has 58% of the vote in the Democratic primary coming from women and only 42% of the overall vote from men.

Clinton leads strongly with older voters. Those 65 and older favor her 45% to 11% over Abama. But this group also has the highest undecided numbers at 24%, up from 19% previously. The numbers are closer amongst the 40 to 64 year olds where she has a 9 point edge, 35% to 24% for Obama and he has definitely gained in this age group as her share has declined since the last survey where she led 43% to 19%. The race is closest in the 18 to 39 year old voting group where Clinton has a 32% to 28% edge, about at the margin of error of the poll. But this is a huge drop for her, as in the October survey her lead with younger voters was 52% to 25%, and the undecided numbers have spiked with younger voters from 10% previously to 19%.

As for political ideology, Clinton has her narrowest lead with self described liberals (35% to 26%), has an increased lead with “middle of the road” voters (38% to 23%), and an amazing 34% to 6% edge amongst conservative voters who will make up 14% of those voting in the Democratic primary according to Field. Her 20 point lead with liberals has decreased to 11 points, her 32 point lead with middle of the roaders has declined to 15 points, and her lead has probably lengthened with conservative voters in the Democratic primary, which is a small portion of the expected vote and is reflected in a small sample denoted by an asterisk.

It is interesting that Clinton’s lead in union household voters is less (29% to 24%) than with non union household voters (40% to 21%). She has a strong lead with Latinos (42% to 22%), a similar lead with the small sample of Asians/others (44% to 20%)less with White non-Hispanics (34% to 21%), and with a small sample, it appears that Barack Obama has more Black support (38% to 28%). But in each of these racial/ethnic groupings Clinton has lost support and there are more decideds. For instance, in October she could count on 52% of the Latino vote and had a 20 point lead over Obama at 16%, but in this survey she has dropped 10 points, he has increased by 6 points, and undecided voters have increased to 6 points, so that her previous lead of 36 points with Latinos is down to 20 points.

As income increases, so is the likelihood of voters favoring Obama, but Clinton has strong leads in those making under $80,000 a year in household income which are expected to be the largest segment of voters as to income.

Clinton has what appears to be an edge with those who will be casting ballots by mail—expected to be 43% of the turnout in the Democratic primary. She leads here by 16 points, by a margin of 40% to 24% over Obama. On those expected to cast a vote in their precincts her lead is 13 points (345 to 21%).

Field has done something very interesting here and analyzed where Edwards vote would go were he to withdraw from the race before the Democratic primary in California—as has been speculated about if he has a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire. The results are that Obama would gain the most of Edward’s share of voters by a margin 40% to 24% in this scenario. Richardson would pick up 11% of these votes—much higher than his 3% in the polls now, Biden 6% and others or not sure account for about one-fifth of these voters.

The race becomes even tighter if Edwards withdraws, or in my opinion if he does poorly but stays in.

Two more important and not to be overlooked parts of the data here.

By a large margin, 52% to 18% for Obama, and 16% for Edwards, likely voters in the Democratic primary believe Clinton has the best chance of being elected President if her or she were the nominee. If Obama wins earlier primaries, this number may change significantly.

Yet this poll shows that both Clinton and Obama will win California, and in fact Obama has the potential to secure more Republican and non-partisan/other voters in the general election here in California. 38% of expected California voters say they will definitely vote for Clinton in November and another 23% will consider voting for her—totaling 61%. 35% say they will definitely vote for Obama and 25% say they will consider voting for him, totaling 70%. 36% of California voters say they will definitely not vote for Clinton and 26% say they will definitely not vote for Obama. Clinton is despited by Republicans, who view her unfavorably 77% to 18%, whereas Republicans in California have a mixed view of Obama (43% favorable to 41% unfavorable). Obama does much better with non-partisan others, where he is seen favorably 70% to 15% than Clinton’s 59% to 33% favorable rating amongst these voters.

Both Obama and Clinton have their strengths and weaknesses in this snapshot. The earlier primaries may do some winnowing of the field and give one or the other an edge in the “big mo”—momentum. If Edwards wins earlier contests, this could change overnight. As these earlier states will set the stage, it is California and other states on February 5 that will probably decide the nominee.

Remember—the only poll that counts is on Election Day—including the ballots mailed in before then. The results are not preordained. Get involved with the candidate of your choice by clicking here. As Bay Area radion reporter Scoop Nisker ended his broadcasts in the active times decades ago—“If you don’t like the news, go out and make some of your own.”