Vote by Mail Has Big Implications for California Presidential Primary According to Field Poll

Oregon has gone to a complete vote by mail process and has had the highest or among the highest turnouts in recent elections. So, if California Democrats rise to the challenge, this could bode well for a more Democratic, more progressive electorate which is generally the case with a high turnout.

The permanent VBM voters have grown every year since California law facilitated voters to choose this method in 2002--from 1.2 million Californians in November of 2002 to 4.2 million as of February of this year. February's number represents 27.2% of California's 15.5 million voters. It has undoubtedly increased since then, and given the trend and the assumption that campaigns are on their feet, should continue to rise substantially further before the primary election.

When the permanent VBM are combined with others who vote by mail (we used to call them "absentee voters") but have not requested these ballots permanently--we may very well see a majority of voters participating in this election by mail. Recent elections in California have seen a majority voting by mail and in the last statewide primary in June of 2006, 47% voted this way and only 53% voted at polling places. Take a look at Table 2 in the survey and you'll see a graphic illustration (pun intended) of this that is unmistakeable.

Ballots will start to be mailed out on January 7, 2008. This is the day before the New Hampshire primary and four days after Iowa's first caucus. If past patterns hold true, many voters will mail their's back fairly soon after receiving them, there will be a stream afterwards, and another large number mailed in the last days before the election or turned in at their polling place on election day. But many of these will be voted before a number of other significant primaries and before projections come out of the crush of other states voting on February 5.

Field also recites a number of reasons that VBM is popular and growing, including:

• Extending the "voting window" from a 13 hour period on Election Day to a 4 week period

• Allowing voters to cast their ballots and make their choices at their own pace

• Avoiding polling place lines, bad weather, and fears of going to unfamiliar places

• Providing a way to deal with ever increasing numbers of ballot propositions and to read them and consult with references and others about them

• Alleviating concerns about electronic voting as there is a paper trail of ballots used

Using VBM allows campaigns to "get their votes in the bank" before the election. It then also allows these campaigns and political parties to concentrate resources on a much smaller universe on Election Day--the stragglers who have not yet returned their VBM ballots and those who vote at the polls.

The extended voting period also should reduce the effectiveness of last minute "hit pieces." Expect to be bombarded once those ballots arrive. Just how the campaigns deal with the holidays just before then and a bit later with the Superbowl is another question.
Field reports that some county registrar of voters are encouraging VBM "as a way of reducing election costs." It should take some of the pressure off of having to assemble a large army of Election Day workers at polling places. The downside, however, is fewer polling places at greater distances for voters.

Republicans have a 41% to 40% edge over Democrats in permanent VBM statewide--within the margin of error of this survey--but showing a statistically significant difference from their share of the electorate of 34% compared with the Democrats 42%. Non-partisan /others who comprise 24% of the electorate are only 19% of the VBM group--they tend to vote more Democratic--and remember they can vote in the Democratic primary here (but not the Republican primary.

Much of the reason for this lies in Los Angeles County which is two-to-one Democratic. The numbers here are eyepopping: LA County makes up 25% of the state's vote but has only 10% of the permanent VBM voters. That 15 point gap points towards the Democrats and Democratic candidates either engaging in a ramped up efforts to get Angelenos to sign up for VBM or a lot of precinct work on Election Day to get out the vote--or both. The same is true for the Latino vote which is 8% under their level of registration in the VBM category and amongst Latino Democrats, that gap widens to 14%.

The last day to register for the primary is January 22, 2008 and absentee ballots (VBM) can be requested up to 7 days before the election--but it is best not to wait, especially in requesting a ballot if voting by mail because of delays with the mail and processing and mailing them back in or delivering them by hand so they are received before the polls close on February 5, 2008.