Is California Headed in the Right Direction? How the Media is Interpreting Today's Field Poll and How the Numbers Stack Up

"With some variations, this broad question as applied to the nation, a state or a city, has appeared in countless surveys conducted by pollsters across the country over the past 20 years. The results from this relatively simple question have proven to have unique value in broadly examining how respondents sum up the many pro and con aspects of the conditions existing in American life today.

"The Field Poll has regularly included this question in its statewide surveys year for more than two decades….

"A review of Field Poll findings from this question since 1988 reveals that voters are highly sensitive to changing conditions and its outlook can vary sharply in a matter of months."

So, if you look at the numbers, we may be a bit more optimistic or less pessimistic (depending on whether you are looking at the 42% full or empty part of the glass) than we were before. And we are decidedly more pessimistic than we were in the last three surveys before then from July of 2006 to March of 2007. But before then, there was a string of 7 polls by Field from February of 2005 to May of 2006 where we were heavily pessimistic including one by a margin of 60% to 28%. And so forth and so on.

Contrary to some headlines, we are not talking about Californians, or at least all Californians. The poll numbers are of registered voters. There is often a big difference between these groups, as Peter Schrag has pointed out in a number of articles and books. Other political scientists have noted the difference and commentators have discussed what this means for California and our public policies.

Its interesting to note that the "non-partisan others" have the highest numbers for the wrong track direction (45% to 38%) while the Republicans are 44% to 46% in that direction, and the Democrats are in the opposite direction, favoring the right track by 46% to 39%.

Reasons Why Voters Are on One Side or the Other of the Right/Wrong Track

Field asked two sets of questions here--one for those who felt we are on the right track and one for those who felt we are on the wrong track. They did not ask those 16% of registered voters who had no opinion one way or the other--those in equipoise.

Here are the questions:

"Why do you believe California is moving in the right direction? (PROBE:) Any other reasons? "

and

"Why do you believe California is seriously off on the wrong track? (PROBE:) Any other reasons?"

Not only is the margin of error greater in each of these subsets of about 242 respondents of the larger sample of 579 voters, but the process used is somewhat overlapping for the reasons given, and there is a process of grouping the responses that is a bit difficult to put them into specific categories.

The Chronicle says that: "In the new poll, 21 percent of voters named immigration and border control as their top concern." That's simply not true. 21% of the 42% who felt the state was on the wrong track volunteered immmigration. That is 8.8% of California registered voters. Steve Geissinger of MediaNews in the Mercury got this one right, reporting that "among those who have a dim view of California's future, the largest proportion - 21 percent - cited immigration issues." The Bee glossed over some of this, reporting that "Pollsters in the current survey found illegal immigration by far to be the top reason for voters' belief the state is on the wrong track, with about a fifth listing that as their primary reason." A fifth of what?

And this response is not necessarily the top concern. Read the bottom of Table 2 of these results and it says "Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions." Remember that the poll takers were probing for more answers than just one, therefore the results are not the top ones.

The analysis gets murkier from there.

The second place response for those who think we are on the wrong track concerns the state's schools.13% of those giving a reason for why they feel we are on the wrong track cited this, down from 21% in the last poll in Octover of 2005. But on the other side of the ledger 5% of the voters who think we are on the right track volunteered because "they’re trying to improve the schools" which warranted only an asterisk in 2005 because less tan 2% had that response then.

And one can go through and try to mash up the two different sets of data for the right and the wrong track. For instance, 6% of the wrong trackers cited that "Elected officials aren't doing a good job/not addressing the important issues, helping people" as a reason for their pessimism. And 5% of them cited corruption and greed by elected officials, up from 2% two years ago But for the equal number of those who feel we are on the right track, 6% said the state is doing more to protect the environment and fighting global warming, another 5% that "They're trying to improve the schools" (whoever the "they" are), another 5% cited "greater cooperation between the Governor and the legislature" and 4% that "They're trying to address the issue of health care." And 21% of the right trackers listed Schwarzenegger (an elected official) and his leadership as a reason for their optimism.

One could infer that voters are not any more concerned about state debt and borrowing from the fact that the 7% figure of the wrong trackers is the same as before. But look at the right trackers who in 2005 20% of the time cited reducing the state deficit as a reason for their optimism and see that it is 3%--a dramatic drop in today's survey.

Conclusion

For a complete understanding of these numbers--a snapshot in time--take a look at the 7 page poll itself. Take it with a grain of salt. There is much valid and valuable data here. And look at it in the context of other data, such as the September Public Policy Institute of California Survey and PPIC's June survey.

In September, the PPIC analyzed their data as follows:

"Californians name immigration (18%) as the most important issue facing the state today, followed by health care (14%) and the economy (13%). Fewer than one in 10 mention education (7%), housing (7%), or other issues.

"Among likely voters, immigration (19%) and health care (18%) are the top concerns. Since June, the number of residents mentioning immigration has declined by 7 points (25% to 18%), while mention of health care has increased by 6 points (8% to 14%); the percentage of residents mentioning the economy has remained the same.

"As in previous surveys, partisan differences about the state’s most important issue are evident. While Republicans (29%) and independents (20%) name immigration as their top concern, Democrats name health care (21%)."

At that time, PPIC president and CEO Mark Baldassare said: “There has been a significant shift in attitude this year—and it is very likely being driven by bad news about the stock and housing markets. For so many people, the feeling of overall financial well-being is tied to the value of their homes—something that seems increasingly threatened as they see sales slow, prices dip, and foreclosures rise.”

We have the two Marks here--Mark DiCamillo of Field and Mark Baldassare of PPIC. Two respected polling outfits here in California. Don't miss the mark yourself by headlines and compacted analyses--even mine. Read and consider all of the data and the polls, and see the nuances and the different patterns in the inkblots.