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Immigration Not a Deciding Issue in 2007 Elections-- but Economic Concerns Do Loom Large

By Joel Barkin
Executive Director
Progressive States Network

In 2006, many analysts raised fears that anti-immigrant fervor would doom progressive candidates. Instead, progressives won big in those elections. Immigration was a non-issue for many voters and fueled a backlash last year AGAINST conservative candidates by many Latino voters who had supported President Bush in 2000.

In 2007, it was more of the same in elections in Virginia and New York where Democrats gained control of the Virginia Senate and expanded control in Long Island's Suffolk County. Typical headlines read "In the Ballot Booths, No Fixation on Immigration" (Washington Post) and "New York Democrats Say License Issue Had Little Effect" (NY Times). One senior political strategist in Virginia said, "The one point on which moderates and conservatives seem to agree is that their party overplayed the illegal immigration issue. They went for a magic bullet with immigration, and it didn't work". Adding to that point, Sen. Richard L. Saslaw, who will likely become majority leader in the Virginia Senate, said in an interview:

"The results are proving that, while immigration is a concern to people -- and it should be -- it is not returning the votes that [anti-immigrant leaders] thought that it would."

Despite local agitation over immigration in both states, elections turned on a range of other issues, from taxes to land use policies. Hard-line anti-immigrant candidates generally lost out to candidates who argued more broadly for progressive policies to address the needs of the public.

Immigration As A Proxy In A Vacuum

Public opinion data has lately diverged on the question of just how important an issue immigration really is to the American public. In 2006, the Associated Press claimed that "immigration is a growing concern" among voters. Yet, at the very same time, polls from CBS and NBC News showed that immigration was, in fact, among the lowest concerns cited by voters. Gallup reports that "despite the media attention it has received, immigration usually ranks low when Americans are asked to rate the importance of various issues."

The divergence has at least partially to do with each survey's methodology. Voters are more likely to say they believe immigration is a top issue of concern when they are prompted in a vacuum than when they are asked an open-ended question about their priorities. However, that dynamic is not insignificant. It suggests that in individual races, voters can be prompted to cast their vote on the immigration issue – if progressives allow a vacuum on other issues like jobs, the economy, health care and trade to exist.

The Real Problem is Failure of Political Leaders to Address Uncertain Economic Times

Still, if immigration is not showing up as a decisive issue at the polls, why does it remain so constant an issue in public debates, and why do conservative candidates focus so much attention on it? The answer is that concern about immigration is a stand-in for a much broader anxiety of voters about stagnating wages, the housing meltdown and fears over the global economy.

When a recent Democracy Corps poll found that 70 percent of the public says the country is on the 'wrong track,' the poll found that this derived from feelings of "big business getting whatever they want in Washington, leaders forgetting the middle class, and America doing nothing about problems at home." Furthermore, a recent Wall Street Journal Poll on the eve of the 2007 legislative elections found that a majority of both Republican and Democratic voters felt that America's current globalization policies have been bad for American workers. When people feel economic fear and don't see anyone acting to help them, anger and scapegoating, as with some of the attacks on immigrants, is often the result.

Interestingly, we saw precisely this dynamic on immigration back at the beginning of the Reagan Era when the economy was stagnating and neither party was frontally addressing the problem. The New York Times reported in 1980 that "there are growing indications, in public opinion polls and in angry letters from constituents, that many Americans, convinced that immigrants are taking their jobs, draining the treasury and dividing cities into isolated and increasingly hostile ethnic communities, are demanding a solution." That year, a "poll by the Roper Organization showed that nine of 10 of those surveyed supported an 'all-out effort' to halt illegal immigration and that eight of 10 favored reducing the number of legal immigrants."

None of this means the public believes – or believed - that immigrants are the real source of the deep economic problems they are angry about, as the failure of immigration to show up as a factor in the most recent election reflects, but it does show a craving for political leadership that addresses the public's concerns about stagnating wages and the failure of the dividends of economic growth to be fairly shared among all Americans. While progressive leaders can make the case for humane immigration policy, they must simultaneously offer more accountability on issues of corporate power as they relate to other issues of globalization.

In fact, the public's fears over the global economy has been showing up at the polls, just not on the issue of immigration. Public Citizen documented in 2006 that advocates of fair trade policies were increasingly winning out over politicians who were just rubber-stamping corporate trade deals. Reacting to those concerns about bad trade deals, state legislative chambers in Alabama, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Wisconsin and Utah all approved resolutions opposing "fast track" trade deals dominated by corporate interests. Legislatures in seventeen states condemned the escalation in Iraq, most of them complaining that spending on the war was shortchanging money for needs at home. (See PSN's Taking the Lead for other state legislative actions in 2008 addressing the concerns of working families.)

Channeling the Punitive Mood: A Progressive Immigration & Economic Agenda in 2008

With comprehensive immigration reform stalled at the federal level, and with polls showing the public in an angry, punitive mood, we will inevitably see even more discussion about immigration at the state level in 2008. If progressives address these broader economic concerns of voters, there is no reason that immigration cannot be a winning issue for progressive elected leaders. With the Hispanic electorate projected to increase from 7.5 million in 2000 to over 14 million in 2008 and to even greater numbers in the future, the political future belongs to elected leaders who reach out to new immigrants in a compelling way that also addresses the concerns of native citizens.

A key way for progressive leaders to promote a humane policy on immigration is to focus the public's desperation for punitive action on legislation that addresses the abuses of corporate power. The message in the election signals an opportunity to channel the public's punitive mood away from immigrant persecution, into a message that addresses these real concerns about wages and economic growth in their communities.

Examples of positive pro-immigrant state policies include:

• Increasing enforcement of wage & workplace safety laws to eliminate the underground economy.
• “New citizens” programs to better incorporate immigrants into communities and educational institutions.
• Anti-sweatshop procurement rules to raise wages at home and abroad.

The Progressive States Network (PSN) will be hosting a conference call on November 15th with key state legislators and advocates to discuss legislative strategy on immigration for the 2008 session. The call will accompany a strategy paper PSN will be releasing next week to highlight politically smart legislative ways to respond to anti-immigrant attacks and the network of organizations available to support humane immigration legislation at the state and local level. The call will be at 4pm on Nov. 15th. Please RSVP.

Joel Barkin is the Executive Director of Progressive States Network and is a veteran political operative with both legislative and non-profit experience. Prior to joining PSN, he worked in the office of New York State Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat and served as Communications Director and Special Advisor to Congressman Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Joel has worked on a number of campaigns and progressive initiatives.

Progressive States Network aims to transform the political landscape by sparking progressive actions at the state level. Founded in 2005, the group provides coordinated research and strategic advocacy tools to state legislators and their staffs, empowering these decision-makers with everything they need to engineer forward-thinking change.

Posted on November 08, 2007

Comments

This is more spin. If immigration is a big deal for you, and you, and you, and you, and me, then it's a big deal, regardless of what CBS, or some drunken bought-off Senator, or any other 'fraudulent by omission push polls' say. More spin by mainstream media. When we vote out the traitors, were going to dismiss their propaganda machines too. I'm starting with this rag. Bye forever California Progress Report (La Raza front), nice try.

Posted by: American Citizen at November 8, 2007 04:13 PM

I call B.S.
Illlegal immigration is the deciding issue, and getting bigger. Bush said "see you at the bill signing" NOT. This is not a Conservative vs Liberal issue Dem vs Rep issue, its a AMERICAN ISSUE!

Posted by: Jeff at November 8, 2007 06:26 PM

It's interesting here the emergence of right-wing flamers. Are you boys being paid for all of this? Your handlers might want to insist that you spell correctly, and produce a coherent sentence, if possible.

Pete Wilson tried to pull this anti-immigrant wedge stuff a dozen years ago, and all he succeeded in doing was:

a) ending his political career

b) driving Latinos and Armenians into the waiting arms of the Democratic party, and

c) making it difficult for any moderate Republican to get a political toehold anywhere in the state.

Keep it up, guys! The backlash will be lots of fun.

Posted by: Jim Carlile at November 8, 2007 09:54 PM

Mr. Carlile,

Outside of your obvious political bent and shallow jabs at spelling, etc. (Its a BLOG) please explain why Proposition 187 was passed overwhelmingly by the voters in Califonia but it is somehow not the law of the land?

Why doesn't Gil Cedillo or Fabien Nunez, members of the Latino Caucus, put illegal alien drivers licenses UP TO THE VOTERS OF CALIFORNIA instead of continuing trying to pass veto-able legislation? Would California be like NY state where 72% of the folks would crush it in defeat?

(Just why is there a "Latino Caucus" inside the Legislature? I thought the legislature in its entirety WAS A CAUCUS. Am I a "racist" for noting that? I hope not as that is what that particular Caucus, aka special interest organization calls ITSELF.-Just thought I would get that out before cavala starts his version of the "confederacy" band wagon again...).

For the record, again, many folks have no problem with LEGAL immigration, one that has a viable assimilation program within it. They are tired of the governmentally caused chaos in not fixing a problem of THEIR OWN creation.

As for Mr. Barkin's article, he must have written it 2-3 months ago OR he doesn't have a TV set as:

1. NY Governor Spitzer's attempt to award illegal aliens drivers licenses was crushed by 72% of the folks in his very liberal state, that means both democrats and republicans were against it.

2. Democratic Presidential Candidate front-runner Hillary Clinton took a dip in all the polls (even the liberal ones) after her gaff during the last debate last week on the issue of Spitzer's illegal alien initiative described above. Senator Dodd started the dog pile immediately followed by Obama and the others debate participants.

She has some leadership abilities demostrated there! But I digress...

Mr. Barkin's use of a "Democracy Corps Poll" and another poll from 2006 and a NY Times article (they don't have an agenda do they?)is interesting. The illegal alien issue heated up THIS PAST YEAR as the rest of the US outside the border states (and a very liberal, misguided California on this issue) is now becoming aware of the problem and weighing in.

Illegal Immigration will be a deciding issue in the 2008 election. If Hillary's flip-flop is the best you have got and her alluded too support of Spitzer's program is for real, that backlash my friends will be one you don't even see coming as it's headlights are already too bright!

Posted by: Jay Gould at November 8, 2007 11:15 PM

American Citizen, Jeff and Jay Gould are pretty deluded..the same way as Barack Obama thinks that a black man will be elected the President of the US. If I believe that I believe in tooth fairy. Immigration was an issue unlike what Carlisle is stating. Here in Virginia, whiter and more southern the constituency the issue was positive for the GOP. The darker and less southern the constituency the issue worked against the GOP, eg. Fairfax County. More foreigners becoming citizens would lead to a GOP disadvantage but we really dont have any numbers as to whether these new foreigners will ever vote. Steve Sailer is another deluded individual in VDare who thinks that the redemption of the GOP lies among whites and not among Hispanics. I beg to disagree. GOP has (or had)a better shot with Hispanics in Texas and Florida than with New England whites including white men in that part of the country (your typical Patriots backer). The same perhaps goes for Illinois and to some extent in California. By not making a clear distinction between legal Hispanics and illegals, GOP has engaged in bigotry associating themselves with racists such as VDare and Paul Craig Roberts. That is why they lost and will continue to loose, not because of opposition to illegals. If I want to fight illegal immigration I would rather look up to Dems such as Brad Ellsworth, Clair McCaskill and Baron Hill than racist Republicans such as Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, Marsha Blackburn, Nathan Deal, Lynn Westmoreland and other bigots who claim they are for the American workers everytime immigration becomes an issue and continue to oppose issues favorable to American workers such as the Minimum Wage increase.

Posted by: George Chell at November 9, 2007 05:01 AM

Another point of note:

Both Mr. Carlile ("right wing flamers") and Mr. Chell ("racist republicans) resort to name calling and labels such as "racists" at the drop of a hat whereas their opposite numbers only want the law upheld regardless of your race, gender, ethnicity, etc.

Posted by: Jay Gould at November 9, 2007 08:48 AM

Politicians and Americans for that matter should take a look at "American Harvest." Its a non-partisan feature length documentary about immigration as it relates to agriculture. It presents the facts as they are without political bias.

http://www.americanharvestmovie.com

American Harvest Synopsis

Anti-immigration sentiment sweeps across America. A journey from Florida to New York, including a trip to the Mexican border, reveals the lives and issues of legal and illegal migrants and farmers working toward a better life. Is the immigration system in America flawed? Immigrants are dying to feed America.

American farmers and agriculture rely on immigrants to do jobs that Americans won't do or feel that are simply beneath them. Some only see the problems in the news from the perspective of those extreme points of view of the left and the right side of our political system.

Discrimination of immigrants has existed in the United States since the English persecuted the Irish. It was once generally considered that if you were Greek or Southern Italian you were not white.

American Harvest points out the inconsistencies of the current policy on immigration. See the changing face of immigrant America as it relates to Agriculture.

Follow legal and illegal farm workers and the farmers caught in the middle of a flawed immigration policy.

Posted by: Angelo Mancuso at November 10, 2007 04:04 AM

Angelo,
It is not immigration that Americans are upset with. It is the ILLEGAL immigration and the open border policy. Very simple we need to control our borders then we can offer the illegal's some better options.

Posted by: Jeff at November 10, 2007 08:00 AM

Jeff,

I would completely agree. I have been in the desert on the border with one foot on each side. I have spoken to border patrol agents doing their jobs. Yes our borders need to be secured to stop any potential threat.

But here is were the gray area needs to be addressed. Our American farms are in a crisis right.

In New York alone, according NY Farm Credit 900 of the 35,000 farms are in jeopardy of going out of business in the next year. Once these farms go out of business they are likely not to be utilized for farming. The tax base in that community suffers.

8 billion dollars a year goes into the social security fund that is never taken back out from contributions from these "illegal" workers.

We need to create an immigration policy not only stresses tight border security, but also acknowledges that immigrants mainly from Mexico are picking our crops. After traveling 15,000 miles across the U.S. and into Mexico I have seen first hand the complexities of this issue.

And it is far more gray than it is black and white.

Toughen our borders. Give American farmers access to individuals that are willing to work.

These immigrants are making between $9 and $20 per hour. If they were being exploited they would be looking else were for opportunity.

When my film is released I hope many Americans will take a look at it. If you go to our website you will see from the comments and reviews that the movie is nonpartisan.

Maybe then will you have a better appreciation of what less that 2% of us here in America do. And that's farming.

I may not change your mind. Then again I just might.

Instead of looking at this issue in a partisan fashion, what can we all do to fix an immigration system that is broken? Homeland Security Chertoff acknowledges that it's broken.

What can we do so we don't bite the hand that feeds us?

Then men and women that put food on our kitchen table deserve no less.

Posted by: Angelo Mancuso at November 10, 2007 03:01 PM

Angelo asks what can we all do to fix an immigration system that is broken? What can we do so we don't bite the hand that feeds us?
One thing we can do is tell Congress to stop destroying other nations' economies with NAFTA, CAFTA, and other so-called free trade agreements. The elite in the US are determined to destroy the middle class, and the elite in Mexico are determined to drive their poor north.
With regard to immigration - there is no need for alien labor on farms. Higher wages and mechanization will solve any problems there. See www.cis.org. Explore why the USDA (Bob Bergland) stopped federal funding for mechanized crop harvesting in 1979. Why? Greed and politics.
There is no need for more people. In some areas there are too many people. The director of the Los Angeles county Department of Public Health is upset over childhood obesity, and starts to make the connection with overpopulation, but doesn't quite get there.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-obesity10nov10,1,2944595.story?coll=la-headlines-california
I was a child in Los Angeles County in the 1940s, and obesity was not a problem then. Why not? Fewer people. More space.
Californians, especially in LA County, should take a hard look at what they have let happen over the past 60 years in communities from Canoga Park to Glendale to Covina. Look at health, crime, education, quality of life.
FBI director Robert S. Mueller, rports that "in Glendale, California, Armenian organized crime has established a presence. The unsolved murder rate is high; incidents of fraud, bribery, and witness intimidation run rampant. Many residents are scared silent, and our state and local counterparts are not adequately staffed to address the problem."
http://www.munciefreepress.com/node/17561
What the heck happened? Out of control immigration is what happened, legal and illegal, courtesy of Kennedy, Cellers, Hart, and LBJ, and an apthetic public.
Look at the performance scores of students at Glendale High over the past 60 years, and ask why.
As they say, everyone gets the government some people deserve. Are the people of California getting wht they deserve?

Posted by: Erik Kengaard at November 10, 2007 08:04 PM

As i read commnts on Illegal Aliens(Mostly Mexicans) breaking our Laws,I can think of Lou Dobbs CRUSHING the Illegal Alien Lobby and boy they running scared. The Gringos are waking up and finally Oklahoma was the first state to enact its own Illegal Immigrant law. So the Breaking and Entering Crowd must be aware of the fact of Paul Revere is going to ride again. The Gringos are coming and boy are they upset!

Posted by: Jay at November 15, 2007 03:24 AM

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