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Frank D. Russo

The California Progress Report is published by Frank D. Russo, a longtime observer of and participant in California politics.

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Californians' Attitudes on Hillary Clinton as President--Big News is Strong Independent Support--And That Bill Clinton is a Big Asset

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

The Field Poll released an interesting set of numbers this morning showing that California registered voters divide sharply on their opinions about Hillary Clinton along partisan fault lines, but the most telling numbers are in the support she gets from those not registered as Democrats or Republicans including the growing numbers of independent voters. The poll also shows that Bill Clinton is a big asset to Hillary Clinton's campaign here in California. There also are some generational differences, a gender gap, and differences in support for her in different segments of California's voters.

There's no question who Californians will support in November if Clinton is the nominee--this is still a decidedly blue state. Last week, Field released its poll numbers showing Clinton has a double digit lead against all the major Republican candidates. She beats Giuliani 52% to 38%--by 14 points. And it only gets better than that against others--53% to 33% over Romney (20 points), 56% to 31% over Thompson (25 points), 54% to 35% against McCain (19 points), with likely voters.

Hillary Clinton's composite numbers are 48% favorable and 39% unfavorable. Democrats, with a substantial registration lead in California favor her 67% to21% and Republicans have numbers that are the mirror image of this holding unfavorable views of her by 66% to 22%. Nothing terribly new here. But the "non-partisan/others" break out strongly in Clinton's favor with 52% favorable and 34% unfavorable opinions.

The same pattern holds as to whether voters would consider voting for Hillary Clinton if she were the Democratic nominee for President. Overall, 36% of registered voters would definitely vote for her, 34% would definitely not, and 26% would consider voting for her. Democrats definitely would vote for her by a 58% to 16% margin with another 26% saying they would consider voting for her. Republicans would definitely not by a margin of 63% to 8%. Clinton has 35% of the non-partisan/others saying the would definitely vote for her, another 37% would consider it, and 25% saying they definitely would not.

Here there are some interesting breakdowns in the different segments of California's registered voters. There is a correlation with political ideology, as one would expect, where by a 69% to 6% margin self identified "liberals" will definitely vote for her and where "conservatives" will not by 66% to 15%. Those who say they are "middle-of-the-road" break for Clinton 34% to 25% with another 36% saying they would consider voting for her.

There is a significant gender gap--she is 5 points up amongst women voters, and 8 points down with male voters. That adds up to a 13 point difference. And she does markedly better with younger voters--34% to 26% in the 18-39 age group, than she does with older voters (over 65) where she is at 38% to 43%. She gets even results with the 40 to 64 year old cohort.

Do these numbers reflect some stubbornness of older voters and men to vote for a woman to be President of the United States, even in California? Or do they reflect differences in party registration and general political ideology where young voters in California are much more Democratic than older voters? Or both?

On the whole many more California voters feel Hillary Clinton would make an above average President than not. 13% say she would be "one of the best" and are joined by another 32% who say she would be above average. This combines to 45% when stacked up against the 13% who say she would be one of the worst and 125 who say she would be below average which combine to 25%.

Below this overall number is a big partisan divide. Democrats by 62% to 11% say she would be one of the best or above average. But even 21% of California's Republican voters feel she would make an above average President while 49% disagree, some of them strongly (26% say she would be one of the worst.) The key here is that 41% of the non-partisan/others who feel she would make one of the best or an above average President compared with only 17% who hold the opposite view. There are the usual gaps by gender, age, and race--but in all other categories other than Republicans and conservative voters, California voters feel she would make an excellent or above average President--and the numbers are fairly lopsided in many of these subsets, including the middle-of-the-road voter by a 50% to 16% margin.

Bill Clinton as an Asset

Bill Clinton has a 56% to 37% favorable to unfavorable rating from California voters that has been "remarkably stable", according to Mark DiCamillo, the director of the poll. This includes an important 64% to 28% favorable view from the state's non-partisan/others category.

He is a definite asset in California to Hillary Clinton--with 72% saying he helps her in winning the Presidential election and 16% saying he hurts her chances. Non-partisan/others endorse this proposition by 73% to 13%.

And 62% of voters say it would be good for him to take an active role in heer administration versus 30% who say it would be bad. A strong 71% of the non-partisan/others feel it would be a good thing.

Conclusion

The partisan divide is here in California and many voters see Hillary Clinton through those lenses. The non-partisan/other voter numbers--including many Californians who are not registered with a party and the young, together with the edge Democrats have in registration--are what add up to Clinton's double digit lead in the General Election if she gets the nomination.

Posted on November 01, 2007

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