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New California Field Poll: Giuliani Slipping With Republican Primary Voters Amidst Evidence that Democrats Are More Satifsifed with Their Candidates
By Frank D. Russo
In the California Field Poll released today, leading Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani has dropped 10 points to 25% of the likely primary voters, down from 35% in Field's August survey.
There has not been any statistically significant change in the last two months for the pack following him, with Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson in the 12 to 13% range. Undecided voters have ticked up in the Republican primary for President with 22% saying they haven't made up their minds compared with 20% in August and 15% in March. There also is a slight increase overall in the numbers of Republican voters in the state supporting the "second tier" candidates, although none are above 4%.
Giuliani appears to have a slight lead over Romney in the self identified "strongly conservative" Republicans who are expected to make up roughly half of those who will vote and has much of his lead from moderately conservative or liberal Republican voters who make up the other half--where he gets 26% to Romney's 7% and McCain's 15%.
Other notable features in the subgroups are Giuliani's lower support amongst those who describe themselves as born-again Christians, greater support from those 50 and over, and greater support form those who plan on voting at a precinct than by absentee ballot.(now called "Vote by Mail").
Interesting is that the Field profile for Republican voters has a majority--51%--voting by absentee ballot rather than at a polling place on election day.
Field's poll was taken October 11 to 21 and with a smaller sample of Republican likely voters has a range of error of 5.7%.
LA Times-Bloomberg Poll Show Clinton Approaching Half of National Democratic Primary Vote While Giuliani's Lead is Soft and Democrats More Happy With Their Choices
Field's poll arrives a couple of days after the LA Times-Bloomberg poll shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead nationally with 48% of likely voters over Barack Obama's 17% and John Edwards 13%, and solidifying her support form the many different demographic grops that make up the Democratic primary electorate.
I would expect the Field Poll to have California Democratic Presidential Primary numbers tomorrow.
The Times-Blooomberg poll shows Giuliani with a national lead that is a bit bigger than Field shows in the state. If primaries were held today, Giuliani would receive 32% nationally (compared with 25% in California) with Fred Thompson at 15%, John McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, and Mike Huckabee at 7%.
But the Times reports that, "The Democrats are much more satisfied with their presidential choices than the Republicans." Nationally, they report that "Republican primary votes are not as enthused with their choices, especially those who consider themselves Christian conservatives." They say: "Large majorities of Christian conversatives would consider a third party candidate if the Republican candidate doesn’t oppose abortions and gay rights." They note: "The poll results shows [sic] that the Republican candidates' messages are not resonating with the voters." The numbers of Republican primary voters who say they will only vote for a candidate who oppose abortions and gay rights is two in five.
Both Clinton and Obama handily defeat McCain, Romney, and Thompson. The only races that are at all close are Clinton-Giuliani, which she wins 47% to 41%, and Obama-Giuliani, which Obama also wins, 43% to 40%.
There's a lot more that is interesting in the 17 pages of crosstabs in the Times' poll which has a margin of error of 3% overall and 4% in the party primary races.
It is also interesting to correlate these findings with the PPIC poll taken in early to mid September that found Clinton and Giuliani in the lead and echoed the findings of the Times-Bloomberg national survey that also in California, Democrats are much happier with their candidates than Republicans are.
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