Field Poll: Schwarzenegger Popular with California Voters, Including Democrats

California Legislature Ratings and Conflicts with the Governor

Up until this year, in dozens of polls since 2001, the legislature has received low marks with more voters disapproving than approving them "overall."

In this survey, they have rebounded from the last survey in August (think budget fiasco) to a split with the voters--38% approval and 40% disapproval--well within the margin of error of the poll. In March, coming off a very productive session of 2006, the legislature as a body had approval of 42% to 40%--also basically a split.

This is actually a fairly good rating for the legislature as we have pointed out in the past that voters tend not to like legislative bodies--Congressional or state--as they are messy and involve compromises and in California, the need to reach often difficult to impossible super majorities (two-thirds in each house) to pass a budget, fiscal bills, and some other measures. Voters tend to like executive leaders--and Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor--exudes the kind of take charge, bold action--responses from voters and residents.

The legislature actually gets approval from Democrats (39% to 35%) and even more from independents and those registered with smaller parties (43% to 34%), but gets dinged badly by Republicans 33% to 50%.

There is an inclination to support the Governor in areas of dispute with the legislative leaders--but not overwhelmingly. 38% of voters say they would support the Governor in such a generic disagreement, while 32% would support leaders in the state legislature, and 30 would support neither or have no opinion. Given the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger has name recognition and can be identified as Governor by well over 90% of the electorate and the leaders of the Assembly and Senate are known by a percentage of voters in the single digits, it not surprising that in response to this question he fare a little bit better than the legislative leadership.

There is a partisan divide here, with both Democrats (41% to 27%) supporting the legislative leadership along with the non-partisans (by 39% to 29%), but Republicans by large margins prefer the Governor (57% to 16%).

Voters generally think Schwarzenegger has compromised "about the right amount with the legislature (44%) while 22% say he has not compromise enough and 19% say he has done so too little. Sort of like Goldilocks and the porridge she liked. The results are split by party with a plurality of Democrats, as is true with all parties, picking the about right category 42%. But 33% of Democrats thin he has not compromised enough and 12% too much. Non-partisan others who don't go with the right amount, break 27% to 16% in favor of not enough. 50% of Republicans go for all right while 29% say too much and 5% say not enough.

Schwarzenegger v. Boxer in 2010--and Schwarzenegger for President

The results here show that the election would be too close to call if held today--44% Schwarzenegger, 43% Boxer, and 13% undecided. Given the 4.1% margin of error here, this is a draw.

There has been a great deal of speculation as to whether Schwarzenegger would make this run. In response to reporters' questions earlier this month, Boxer acknowledged that Schwarzenegger would be competitive for this race, and the numbers come at no surprise.

There is the usual geographical split on page 9 of the poll, where Boxer piles up large margins in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area, and Schwarzenegger wins in other areas of the state, closely or by large margins. He gets 22% of Democrats and she gets 14% of Republicans, and she wins the non-partisan/others by 52% to 39%.

There is a gender gap with Boxer getting 9 points greater support from women and Schwarzenegger getting 10% less from women. All in all, a 19 point spread.

Boxer does better with younger voters, Schwarzenegger with older voters. He wins the non-Hispanic white vote 55% to 34%, while she wins the Latino vote 64% to 20% and also wins the small samples of blacks and Asians surveyed.

He gets the conservative vote 73% to 18%, they split the middle-of-the-road vote 42% apiece, and she wins the liberal vote 72% to 17%.

Schwarzenegger cannot run for President under the U.S. Constitution because he is not a U.S. born citizen. However, if he were able to do so, by a wide margin, his fellow Californians would not be inclined to vote for him--63% to 18%.

My Analysis of a Schwarzenegger-Boxer Race in 2010

This is three years away. Much can happen in this period of time. Most California governors after two terms in office have lowered opinion ratings from the voters. Pat Brown found this out in 1966 when he ran for a third term against Ronald Reagan after having been a popular governor for most of his two terms. The same pattern could hold true for our current Governor if the California economy tanks or for any number of reasons. Or he could remain popular as Governor with the voters.

What strikes me as amazing, is that even with his current high ratings and with Boxer's somewhat diminished ratings from the prior Field poll, the race is even.

If you look back at the Field Poll ratings before the Boxer re-elects in 1998 and 2004, she was polling in the mid-40s, but ended up winning both of them. They weren't Arnold Schwarzenegger, but she started out behind, was dismissed by many commentators, and won both of these races.

The Field Poll is more evidence that a candidate’s popularity in one position doesn’t necessarily translate to the next. And it doesn’t necessarily translate when that candidate is pitted against another well-known figure. The Governor won his election decisively a year ago and has a job approval rating of 56%. But only 44% of the people support him in a hypothetical run for the Senate against Boxer and only 18% for President.

They may like Arnold as Governor, but when he is matched against Boxer, who they also like, his support for that race is 12 percentage points less than his job approval rating. For example, 51% of Democrats think he is doing a good job as Governor, but only 22% support him in a match against Boxer. 56% of the crucial non-Republican and non-Democratic voter pool likes Arnold’s job performance, but in a Boxer-Schwarzenegger match up, they flip. Only 39% support the Governor and 52% of them support Boxer. This is the largest growing part of the electorate--and unless trends reverse, it will be even larger in 2010.

Californians have watched Senator Boxer over the years and know--or will be reminded-- that she doesn’t back down from a fight. Whether it’s Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill or getting more transportation dollars for California, she is a fighter. She’s going to be ready for whichever Republican decides to run.

Boxer’s grassroots base is exceptionally committed to her. Over 250,000 people are on her email list. She has a direct mail donor base of nearly 100,000 grassroots donors. (About 80% of her contributions are $100 and under.) Both of those lists are growing, even 3 years before the election. Earlier this month, at the event featuring Al Gore, progressives nationally and in the state showed they are committed to keeping her in the Senate.

This strong base gives her an edge going into a tough race, because she can focus on talking to those voters in the middle who need to be reminded of her record of accomplishment. But it's not a "gimme", wouldn't be conceded by either side, and couldn't be taken for granted by anyone.