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California Statewide Poll Results--Voters Overwhelmingly Reject Electoral Power Grab Initiative

By Ben Tulchin
Vice President
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

California voters overwhelmingly oppose the Republicans’ partisan effort to change how California distributes its electoral votes.

Question wording: "This initiative is titled the Presidential Electors. Political Party Nomination and Election by Congressional District. It reads as follows: This initiative requires California to join two other states in selecting electors for president by the plurality vote in each congressional district. It provides for political party nomination of electors pledged to vote for that party's candidate. Independent electors would be chosen by independent presidential candidates and also elected by congressional district. Two at-large electors would be selected based on plurality of statewide vote for president. It mandates that electors vote for the candidate for whom they are pledged. The initiative eliminates 10 dollar compensation and five cents per mile reimbursement of electors. The fiscal impact on state and local government concludes it would reduce state expenses of less than 10 thousand dollars every four years.

"Now, if an election were held today, would you vote yes, in favor of this initiative, or no, to oppose it?"

When voters are read the title and summary of the proposed initiative, a solid majority opposes the measure - 53 percent would vote NO if the election were held today and only one out of five voters (22%) support the initiative while a quarter of the electorate (25%) is currently undecided. This is one of the lowest levels of support we have ever seen in our polling for a statewide initiative in California.

Consistent Opposition Throughout the State

Here is how bad the Republican electoral power grab initiative is doing - it has managed to unite Californians throughout the state against the measure. In fact, every demographic group and region of the state rejects this measure.

Opposition is quite even throughout the state as majorities of every region of California are voting no on the electoral power grab initiative:

Los Angeles County - 24% yes to 52% no
Suburban Los Angeles - 21% yes to 57% no
San Francisco Bay Area - 20% yes to 51% no
San Diego - 18% yes to 52% no
Sacramento and North - 23% yes to 56% no
Central Valley - 24% yes to 52% no

This initiative is quite unique as we rarely see such overwhelmingly united opposition to an issue in California, where the North and South agree as does Coastal and Inland California.

Bipartisan Opposition - Even Republicans Reject the Idea

Not surprisingly, our poll found Democrats strongly opposed to this Republican-backed measure. Specifically, Democrats reject the measure by a margin of three-to-one (59% no to only 20% yes). Independents also firmly line up against it, opposing it by a two-to-one margin (51% no to 25% yes).

The big surprise in this survey is that even Republican rank-and-file voters strongly reject it. In fact, Republican voters oppose the initiative by a two-to-one margin (46% no to 22% yes). Thus, this measure has no partisan base, even among Republican voters.

Conclusion

The fact of the matter is this electoral power grab effort by Republicans has essentially no chance of passing. No initiative that has started this far down has ever won. And with a majority of voters already voting no on this and the fact that most voters who are undecided on an initiative vote no, Republicans are wasting their time, money, and energy trying to get this losing initiative on the ballot.

Survey Methodology: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a statewide survey among 687 likely June 2008 primary election voters in California from September 23-27, 2007. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.7 percent.

Posted on October 31, 2007

Comments

This is good news, but I have a problem with it: I don't think most people knew what the initiative was about. What they heard was this:

"This initiative requires California to join two other states in selecting electors for president by the plurality vote in each congressional district."

I don't think most poll takers had the foggiest idea what this meant, so they cynically said "no" because they thought it was gobbledygook. I hope I'm wrong, but when Rollins and Co. spin it all as "fairness," the results may be different.

Posted by: Jim Carlile at October 31, 2007 06:44 PM

further proof of the dumbing down of Americans...does anyone read anymore? Better yet, do they understand what they're reading?

Posted by: Nina at November 1, 2007 10:58 AM

Most people, especially Republicans, will say no to any government proposal they are not familiar with. Other then those who follow politics closely not many people are familiar with proposition yet. In the end Reps will vote for it and Dems won't and it will lose by 7-10 points.

Out of curiosity if all states agreed to choose their electors by congressional district, would you still be against it?

Posted by: sean at November 1, 2007 12:04 PM

Answering for myself: It would then be a lot more defensible and better than it is right now, but it still allows for the election of someone who receives fewer votes than another candidate. Some even believe that it would increase these chances given population patterns and the Congressional districts.

The alternative that makes sense to me is the National Popular Vote model that is gaining approval in a number of states and would make sure that the popular vote rules, making every vote from large and small states and all communities equal. One person, one vote.

Posted by: Frank D. Russo at November 1, 2007 12:17 PM

The only pole that counts is on election day.

I hope this passes and we get our votes to count, no more extream dems tring to steal elections like they tried in Florida.

Posted by: SolarFlex at November 7, 2007 12:03 PM

> The only pole that counts is on election day.

> I hope this passes and we get our votes to count,
> no more extream dems tring to steal elections like > they tried in Florida.

Has anyone done a study of the correlation between being a wingnut and not being able to spell (or use proper grammar or punctuation)?

Posted by: HomerRamone at November 11, 2007 07:41 PM

When Field did poll in August 47% favored the initiative, 35% were opposed, and 18% were undecided.
A friend compared this form of vote counting to one baseball teams counting its home wins in a porportion to the score, ie 3 to 2 team gets a 60% W, and when on the road only gets an all or nothing W or L. All other teams would count their wins and loses in the normal manner.
Welcome Republican rule for the next 30 years or so.

Posted by: Dan Monte at December 1, 2007 05:10 PM

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