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California Poll Shows Support for Clinton, Giuliani, Prop 93 (Term Limits), Legal Residency for Undocumented Immigrants, and Even a 1 Cent Sales Tax for Health Coverage
By Frank D. Russo
The San Jose State Survey and Policy Research Center (SPRI) released today the second part of a poll taken earlier this month that showed Prop 93--the term limits measure--ahead 51% to 27% amongst likely voters with 21% undecided, a substantial majority continuing to support illegal immigrants becoming legal residents of California (59% of Californians and 53% of voters), and that there is support for a sales tax increase to support insurance coverage for Californians.
The poll can be found on the SPRI site along with results released Friday as to the Presidential Primary race. There is a lot more here on Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity (it continues to be high and above 50% of both voters and Californians), the direction of the state (down to only 42%-39% right track versus wrong) which is positively balmy when compared with the 26% who say the nation as a whole is headed in the right direction while 59% of Californians say it is "seriously off on the wrong track."
Presidential Primary
In the Democratic primary for President, Hillary Clinton is ahead with all primary votes by 42$ to 20% for Barack Obama and 14% for John Edwards. A full 24% of Democratic primary voters are either supporting another candidate or are undecided.
Clinton's support is up from the 37% level she was at in the SPRI survey in June. She is far ahead in every demographic and geographical segments in California--except for the youngest (age 18-34) and most infrequent voters where Obama is leading. In the 18-34 year old cohort, Obama is ahead 44% to 25%.
The data leads Phil Trounstine, the Director at SPRI to comment, "Unless Clinton implodes, it's hard to see how either Obama or Edwards can overcome her daunting lead in California." He goes on to say that, "What will keep Obama, Edwards, and perhaps others engaged in Califonria is their hope that if they do well in some Congressional Districts they can still pick up a significant portion of the state's delegation."
On the Republican side, this survey shows Rudy Giuliani far ahead at 34%, with John McCain (17%), Mitt Romney (11%), and Fed Thompson 7% trailing far behind. Giuliani dominates in all regions and demographic subparts of the state, except for liberal Republicans and those with incomes below $50,000 who support McCain. But, since independents cannot vote in the Republican primary and only those registered with the party may do so, these are very small slivers of the electorate. Perhaps key is the fact that Giuliani has 40% of the self described "conservatives" in the party--a large bloc--and leads comfortably over Mitt Romney who is at 15% of the conservative bloc. This is strange in light of all the talk of conservatives bolting the party if Giuliani is the nominee.
Since the way the Republican primary works is winner take all by Congressional District, Giuliani's big statewide and regional leads could discourage other candidates in the state.
This is a scientific study by a respected and nonpartisan organization. It was taken between October 1 and 8. Its findings are in accord with what many other polls in California show. The margin of error is 4.9% for all Californians, 3.8% for voters, 7% for Democratic primary voters, and 8% for Republican voters. So, in the different subcategories, it needs to be interpreted with a grain of salt.
Other Questions
As is true with virtually all other polls, George Bush's approval ratings are at historic lows--21% amongst all Californians, and even Republicans are souring on Iraq. There's nothing really new here, although it is amazing to see that only 26% think President Bush tells the truth as opposed to 61% who think he does not. It's also interesting that by margin of 74% to 16% Democrats think the country is seriously off in the wrong direction and independents at 74%-14% are perhaps even more damning. Even Republicans say it is in the right direction by a 42% to 40% response--within the margin of error of the poll.
On illegal immigrants being allowed to become legal residents of California, the SPRI has asked the same question since March of 1996 and support for the proposition has consistently remained high throughout. Looking at the survey marginals, the numbers pop out at you across a number of demographic and other groups.
The same is true for Prop 93 on term limits, where those surveyed were read the official title and summary, and it still polls highest amongst Republicans, but also leads comfortably amongst Democrats and Independents. It has, however, dipped form the 56% who said they supported it in June when SPRI last asked this question.
Comments
Why isn't Congress passing a comprehensive immigration reform. This is the biggest failure of the Republican party and they will pay come next November.
Posted by: Cohen at October 15, 2007 03:26 PM
were illegals included in this survey???????
Posted by: lasonya at October 17, 2007 08:45 AM
Amnesty should not be supported by either party- secure our borders first- attrition- and sanctions for employers. California's legislature is disgustingly dependent on illegal dollars....at everyones expense.
God Bless the USA
Quiet people rarely make history!
Posted by: lasonya at October 17, 2007 08:52 AM
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