New Field Poll of California Voters on Budget: Most Say It's a Serious Problem and Tend to Blame Republicans

But not to quibble. The political junkies are more captivated by this than the voters at large, most of whom have not yet been directly affected. To those affected, it is a big deal.

The 2002 poll on that year's budget delay, taken in late August, produced more dramatic numbers with 57% describing it as "very serious" and 30% as "serious," with only 10% saying it was "not serious." With Governor Schwarzenegger out on the hustings and stories now appearing daily about the effects of this stalemate, those numbers are in reach if Republicans continue to be recalcitrant as long as they did in 2002.

Who is to Blame for This Fine Mess?

Once again, there is room for different interpretations, although some points seem clear.

Governor Schwarzenegger gets the highest job performance marks here--with 33% saying he is doing a ""very good or good job" and is rated as "fair" by 32% and "poor/very poor" by 24%. This is well below his recent overall job performance standings with the voters.

The Democrats in the state legislature get 22% saying they are doing a "very good/good" job here with 34% saying they are doing "fair" and 29% "poor/very poor." There is a partisan divide as to how the Democrats are rated, as one would expect. The numbers are not great (as is usual with the legislature as an institution polling below executive officers of the state) but they are far better than the Republican legislator's marks in several indices--as we shall see below.

The Republicans get an 18% "very good/good" rating with 35% saying they are doing a "fair" job and 32% saying they are doing a "poor/very poor" job. This is where the numbers get interesting. Amongst registered Republicans, Governor Schwarzenegger gets a higher rating (36%) "good/very good" than Republican legislators (28%). So Republicans like their Governor, who is asking that the budget be passed significantly more than their legislators, some of whom are blocking it.

Democrats are happier with the Democratic legislator's performance (35% to 16%) on the "very good/good" to "poor/very poor" scale than Republicans are with their Republican legislators (28% to 21%).

Most importantly, Republican legislators get the blame from "non-partisan/other" voters, only 9% of whom give the "very good/good" ratings versus 37% assigning a "poor/very poor" rating, whereas the Democratic legislators are at a 17% and 24% spread on this.

Bottom line: Republicans like their Governor better than their legislators, Democrats like their legislators better than Republicans on this issue, and the independent voters are giving most of their heat to Republican legislators. And those following this more closely think this is a very serious problem.

Bear in mind that the question was not divided between Republican Senators who are holding up the budget and their Assembly counterparts who passed it a lot earlier--although most voters would not be expected to make that distinction. Also bear in mind that as an institution (as opposed to one's own representative) the legislature as a whole polls lower consistently (and the same is true for Congress and other large representative bodies where it is often a morass to get anything done).

You've got to know when to hold them and when to fold them. Unless their aim is to stop government altogether, if Republican Senators are reading the polls, we will get a budget soon, as the voters are going south on them.