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Frank D. Russo

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Field Poll: Californians Rate Overall Congress Job Performance at New Low--Failure to End Iraq War Seen as Major Cause

• But Voters Approve Senators Feinstein and Boxer While Giving Mixed Marks to Pelosi
• Republicans in Congress Rated Lower Than Democrats

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll released numbers today that shows that only 20% of our state's voters approve of the overall job performance of Congress--a level lower than President Bush gets. 66% of California voters disapprove of the performance of Congress.

But before anybody gets any ideas that this presages a change in how Californians will vote in Congressional elections, consider that when it comes to opinions about the Republicans in Congress, only 19% of the state's voters approve and 69% disapprove. While not great numbers, the same question as to the Democrats in Congress elicits a 33% approval and 54% disapproval--not exactly a rosy picture, but a lot better in comparison.

For some time legislative bodies as a whole have not fared well in the eyes of the voters--that includes not just the Congress, but the state legislature as well. The legislative process is a messy one and neither the gridlock nor the sausage making compromises needed in a closely divided body are all that appealing sights. It is also a truism that while voters despise these institutions, they love (maybe too strong a word) their own representatives.

Nevertheless, there is a message here. Mark DiCamillo, the Director of the Field Poll, had this to say in today's San Francisco Chronicle:

"It's a historic low, and I think the main driver has to do with disappointment with the war. The reason Congress changed hands in the last election was to try to send a signal to change the administration's policy in Iraq. To this point, the Congress has not been at all effective in that regard."

Taking a look at the numbers that Field provides with the latest poll on page 2, the Congressional approval ratings have been in the 23% to 24% range in 2006, just at the margin of error of 4.5% of the current survey, that shows, if anything, a worsening of Californian voters' perception of Congress. There is little solace that Democrats are at 27% approval and 55% disapproval. Republicans disapprove by 79% to 14% and "non-partisan/others" disapprove by 17% to 65%. But even with the "bump" that came from the Democratic takeover of the House, the numbers were not high to begin with: In March, shortly after that change of hands, just 35% approved of Congress as a whole and 50% disapproved.

Looking a bit deeper at the Field numbers, as one would expect, there is a partisan divide between how Democrats and Republicans in California view the job performance of those from the different parties in Congress. But Republicans are faring far worse with those voters not affiliated with either party. Since there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, this combination bodes well for the Democrats--especially given the scandals plaguing a number of California Republican Members of Congress.

Democrats approve of their own party members as a whole in Congress by a tepid 53% to 34%. Republicans register 13% approval and 80% disapproval of Democrats in Congress. Other voters approve by 26% to 54% disapproval.

Republicans approve of their own party members in Congress by a similar tepid 33% to 56% disapproval, and Democrats have a decidedly lopsided disapproval of Republicans by 81% to 8%. However, those voters who are not affiliated with either party disapprove of the Republicans by a 66% to 16% margin.

These non Democratic and Republican voters give a 10 point margin to the Democrats in their approval and a 12% greater disapproval to the Republicans, as a whole, in Congress.

There are striking parallels between the Field Poll and the national results of the Gallup Poll released earlier this week in which 18% of Americans approve of Congress.

Gallup reported:

"Americans' evaluations of the job Congress is doing are usually not that positive -- the vast majority of historical approval ratings have been below 50%. The high point was 84% approval one month after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, when Americans rallied behind the federal government. Since then, Congress' approval ratings have generally exhibited the same downward trajectory seen in those for President George W. Bush. Currently, 32% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president, a far cry from the record-high 90% he received in September 2001. Bush's current job approval rating is just three percentage points above his lowest.

"There was a slight interruption in the downward trend in congressional approval ratings at the beginning of this year when party control changed hands from the Republicans to the Democrats following last fall's midterm elections. In January 2007, 35% of Americans approved of Congress, a significant increase from the 21% who approved of Congress in December 2006. That December rating tied the lowest in the 12 years the Republicans controlled Congress from 1995 to 2006."

Job Performance of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

California registered voters are split on whether they approve the job performance of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi with 39% approving and 37% disapproving and a full 24% having no opinion. This is below the 48% approval in March, but the approval level is higher than the previous measures of support--37% and 34%--of her role as the House Minority leader, although the disapproval is up about 10 points from these levels in 2003 and 2004.

Pelosi gets 56% to 21% approval from Democrats, 36% to 29% approval from non-partisan/others, and pounded by Republicans 64% to 19%. It is this Republican disapproval that brings her down to virtual parity in her overall approval/disapproval level. There is a similar divide by regions in the state, with 58% to 28% approval in the San Francisco Bay Area and 41% to 31% approval in Los Angeles County, and disapprovals in "other Southern California" by 45% to 29% and in "Other Northern California" regions by 42% to 32%.

Job Performance of California Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer

Both of California's U.S. Senators retain positive job approval ratings, Feinstein near her usual stratospheric level at 56% to 28% approval and Boxer by 48% to 33%, right about the same level she was at in the years of her last two re-elections.

There is the usual partisan divide here and Feinstein does better with California Republicans than Boxer, but what is most interesting in these numbers is that Boxer does at least as well, if not slightly better with the non-partisan/other voters, getting approval from 49% with 24% disapproving. The difference between her and Feinstein who is at 4(% approval and 28% disapproval are within the margin of error of the poll, but Boxer enjoys a 25 point advantage in approval from these voters who are neither registered Democrats nor Republicans. That bodes well for her re-election.

You can read the entire Field Poll online. As usual, your comments and interpretations are welcome in the comment section of this article.

Posted on August 24, 2007

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Posted by: vera at August 24, 2007 08:22 AM

Polls are useful barometers of public opinion but only if the pollsters are asking the right questions.

As far as the job approval of Senators or Members of Congress or Assembly members is concerned, I would like to see a poll that asked voters to to name and rate their own elected representatives. My guess is of those who are paying close enough attention to know who is representing them would, overall, give a much higher positive rating.

Posted by: Tom Walsh at August 24, 2007 06:26 PM

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