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REPUBLICANS BLOCK THE GOVERNOR’S BUDGET – AGAIN – TO LEVERAGE NON-BUDGET ISSUES

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By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

You are the Republican leader of the Assembly. Your predecessor made concessions and supported deals with the Democrats instead of confrontation – to aid the Governor’s reelection. It worked, but left a lot of bad blood among the intransigent conservatives who constitute the majority of Assembly Republicans.

Republican leaders prove their worth in one of two ways. The best, like Jim Brulte, propose plans to escape minority status by defeating enough Democrats to make them the minority party.

But Republicans have not won a seat in two election cycles. In fact, they came within a whisker of losing a seat last Fall. Plan ‘B’ has been to blame redistricting for Republican woes. It’s misdirection. The line drawing plan of the courts produced a two thirds majority for the Democrats in the 1970’s and 50 seats for the Democrats in the 1990’s.

Democrats hold the majority because they field superior candidates who hold positions more in tune with the people than do the Republicans.

Which brings us to the State Budget.

If you can’t show progress toward becoming the Majority, the Budget Process allows you to exercise and leverage the only institutional power possessed by the minority. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass the budget. The Democrats can’t do it without Republican help.

Republican leaders use this sad fact (only three states require supermajority votes) to see redress of their endless grievances. Did virtually all of the Republican bills die in policy committee? Did most of the rest perish in the Appropriations suspense file? Did the remainder not even receive a hearing in the Senate? Were Republican Members denied “respect” in floor debate?

The Budget is the place to get even.

And I don’t mean “even” in a spiteful way. Rather it’s get “even” with the Democrats. It’s a way of leveraging the budget vote into a parity position on the other issues of the day. If you won’t cut $2 Billion in spending, then give us three dams for water storage.

The Governor is being kept away from the discussion to avoid being the subject of leverage from both sides. But as his ratings begin to tank in early September, he’ll see that he can run but can’t hide. Republicans can throw his health ‘tax’ plan over the side.

When you think about it, there are very few reasons for the Republicans to support a budget compromise that don’t depend on a spirit of altruism and sacrifice of principle.

Looks like a long Summer.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.

He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on July 16, 2007

Comments

This is what Cavala does best--analyze political events in the Capitol in terms of the motivations of the principals
(rather than analyzing blowback from the activities of the American imperium).
THe 2/3rd's vote is truely insidious for the Republicans, since they don't have to moderate their policies to obtain relevance (no new taxes,
no new government spending on social welfare, etc). Thus they will always be a minority.

But what is missing from Cavala's analysis is the role redistricting performs in leveling the playing field. Redistricting, in the hands of the Democrats, allows the creation of seats that cannot be "rolled"--that is, where concessions to the 1/3 minority do not need to be made. In the 90's, Democrats were rolled precisely in this manner once term limits removed experienced Democrats from the Assembly.
Electric deregulation and the
conditional car tax are two issues which come to mind which came back to destroy Grey Davis. A 1/3 "liberal" block to offset the 1/3 "conservative" block would have stopped both. If there is to be redistricting "reform", it should be to trade the 1/3rd veto power (1 person blocking 2) for a commission. After all, redistricting as practiced now is supposed to be anti-democratic, but what is
allowing 1 person to have the votes of 2 anything but anti-democratic?

Posted by: publius at July 16, 2007 10:28 AM

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