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Frank D. Russo

The California Progress Report is published by Frank D. Russo, a longtime observer of and participant in California politics.

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New Poll Shows Californians Strongly Favor Legal Status for Undocumented or Illegal Immigrants

Term Limits Would Pass Overwhelmingly if Election Were Today; Schwarzenegger Approval Rating Remains High

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By Frank D. Russo

The respected Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University earlier today released a poll showing that voter support for term limits has increased since March, at least when voters are read the official title and summary that has been prepared for the ballot. The survey also shows strong support for a path to legalized residency status for immigrants here illegally, and that Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to be popular with the residents and voters in California.

Legal Residency for Illegal Immigrants

A full 57% of California adults favor allowing undocumented or illegal immigrants who are living or working in the state to become legal residents. Only 33% oppose this. The results, when limited to California voters are similar with 55% in favor and 36% opposed. The results based on phone contacts between June 18 and 22 are in accord with prior findings in polls taken by SRPI quarterly since March of 2006. Since then, support for legalization has hovered between 50% and 63% with opposition to the idea trailing far behind.

The exact question posed to voters and California adults was: “In your opinion, should undocumented or illegal immigrants living or working here be allowed to become legal residents of California?”

Looking at the crosstabs, even with smaller sample sizes of the subgroups, there is support amongst wide swaths of Californians with the exception of rural Californians who are opposed 35% to 54%, Republicans by a narrow margin (45% to 48%) and conservatives who are opposed 39% to 54%. Independents, by which the poll presumably means decline-to-state voters and those registered with minor parties are split, 47% in favor and 45% opposed. But in all other areas of the state, the margins of support are strong, with the lowest in the conservative “other Southern California” which is still in support 50% to 41%. The numbers go up from there.

Latinos are in support 80% to 13%, as one would expect. But whites are in support 52% to 39%. Democrats are in support 66% to 25%.

Term Limits Ballot Initiative

If the election were held today, based upon a reading of the official ballot language, the term limits change would pass overwhelmingly, 56% to 28%. This represents a positive shift for the proposition which has 51% support and 36% opposition in March of 2007 when SPRI polled, but without the official language being available for use.

The crosstabs show strong support across all regions and subgroups except for blacks who were divided 38% to 41% and presumably represented by a very small sample that would produce a much higher margin of error. Surprisingly, but probably because of the ballot title and summary, Republicans were in support 64% to 31%, higher than Democrats.

This has to be good news for the proponents, but there was a word of caution from survey director Melinda Jackson, assistant professor of political science at San Jose State University: “Californians like the idea of reducing the overall number of years politicians may spend
in office. But this proposition also lengthens the amount of time a legislator may serve in one chamber or the other so the ultimate outcome will likely depend on which aspect of the proposal voters focus on. If opponents spend money on television ads against this proposal, if Governor Schwarzenegger opposes it or if Republicans and conservatives feel tricked, the measure could lose ground very quickly.”

Schwarzenegger Approval Rating Remains High

By a margin of 56% to 29%, Californans approve of the performance of Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor and the results from voters are a bit higher at 61% to 26%.

The Governor gets highest marks from Republicans at 75% to 17% and conservatives 68% to 22% and lowest marks from the state’s Democrats at 49% to 34% and Latinos 49% to 44%. Nonetheless he get support from all groups in this poll.

Californians continue to believe the state is on the right track by a 47% to 40% margin, but strongly feel the nation is not by a 59% to 30% response.

This poll has a margin of error of 3.9%, but a higher margin for subgroups. Still, many of the results here are so conclusive that the trend is apparent for smaller sets of voters in the different categories they are divided into. You can review the entire poll online.

Posted on June 26, 2007

Comments

Californians will continue to suffer from the actions of those who fail to see the connection between overpopulation and the destruction of government service in California.

Consider emergency room service in Southern California.
"On Friday, June 22, the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing on the response of the Department of Health and Human Services to the nation’s emergency room crisis." http://oversight.house.gov/

In testimony before the committee, Dr. Ramon W. Johnson notes that "Hospital emergency departments are the provider of last resort for many people, including undocumented aliens, who have no other access to medical care. As such, emergency departments experience a high-rate of uncompensated care." He also notes "America's emergency departments are underfunded, understaffed, overcrowded and overwhelmed – and we find ourselves on the brink of collapse." It is congress that has caused the overcrowding that overwhelms. Shame on them. I found his testimony worth reading

I have taken his remarks out of context. His full statement is at http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20070622135308.pdf

Californians would do well to remember that the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Posted by: Erik Kengaard at June 26, 2007 01:02 PM

This sounds like another bogus poll with an agenda. I live in California and everybody I talk with thinks that illegal aliens should be sent home with only a few exceptions. This state is overrun with these people who stand on the streets in front of Home Depots etc., to beg for work. They don't pay their fair share of taxes, and take more from the system than they put in. Also many of the illegals are criminals. They shouldn't be here, plain and simple. To give them a path to citizenship or any form of amnesty would be a huge mistake!

Posted by: Linda Graves at June 26, 2007 08:43 PM

This sounds like another bogus poll with an agenda. I live in California and everybody I talk with thinks that illegal aliens should be sent home with only a few exceptions. This state is overrun with these people who stand on the streets in front of Home Depots etc., to beg for work. They don't pay their fair share of taxes, and take more from the system than they put in. Also many of the illegals are criminals. They shouldn't be here, plain and simple. To give them a path to citizenship or any form of amnesty would be a huge mistake!

Posted by: Linda Graves at June 26, 2007 08:44 PM

Linda, I can assure you--and you can check this out with folks who know polls--that this is a legitimate poll that is not "cooked" in any way. You may not like the numbers, but it reflects what other polls have shown about Californians' attitudes.

Posted by: Frank D. Russo at June 26, 2007 08:51 PM

I don't believe in the Poll. I believe in what I see an live everyday. American childern in California suffer from over crowed class rooms. which make it harder on the techers to give that needed attention to some kids that is not getting the lessons that is given. I'm sick to my soul of hearing that illegals will take jobs that americans wont take. Have they every consider that companys will not hire american that would take those jobs because illegal will take less pay. HOW ABOUT!! The felone that just release from prison and want to be a productive citizen but can't get a second chances because they have broken the law. Illegals are breaking the law too. it dosn't stop companys from hiring illegals.

Posted by: liko m thomas at June 28, 2007 11:01 AM

Where was this poll taken - at the EDD, Social Security Office or in Salinas? It's absurd. Californians may be generous, but they are not fiscally suicidal. As the U.S. Senate just voted, American citizens as well as Calfornians want our current immigration laws enforced. This poll will convince no one. I know a wide circle of people. Not one has expressed a desire for this disastrous selling out of our economy. It would bankrupt both the state and the nation. Stop with the phoney polls!

Posted by: Diane Champion at June 28, 2007 01:23 PM

Yep, another bogus poll all right; the author had to tell us it was a "respected" polling source, a sure sign it is not.

Stop trying to pass this new "term limits" as a real term limit initiative. Show us the whole proposed ballot measure text, who is paying for this ballot measure and who it will support/benefit. Conclusion: Fabian Nunez and Don Perata seem to want to hold on to their personal positions of power/influence and are using their special interest cronies to do their dirty work for them.

Posted by: Term Limits! at July 1, 2007 02:08 PM

You can rail all you want against this poll, but it is totally independent and legitimate. It was not taken for one side or another and stands on its own. If you have any evidence to the contrary, I'd like to hear about it.

Posted by: Frank D. Russo at July 1, 2007 04:53 PM

How do you square this then...
A new study by the Heritage Foundation's Robert Rector found a household headed by an individual without a high school education, including about two-thirds of illegal aliens, costs U.S. taxpayers more than $32,000 in federal, state and local benefits. That same family contributes an average of $9,000 a year in taxes, resulting in a net tax burden of $22,449 each year.

Over the course of the household's lifetime that tax burden translates to $1.1 million

Posted by: The Taxpayer at July 1, 2007 08:53 PM

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