Analysis of New California Poll That Shows Clinton and Giuliani Still Leading in State's Presidential Primary--What Do the Numbers Really Mean?

Given the polls that show there are gender gaps on the Iraq War with women more opposed and on other domestic issues where women are more liberal than men, can Edwards or Obama narrow the gap as the candidates' positions on these issues become better known to the voters?

While there are variations on the lead that Clinton has amongst the subcategories, she leads in all of them in this survey. She is ahead amongst liberals, moderates, conservatives, whites, non-whites, geographically, amongst union and non union homes, in all age groups, and in Democrats and Decline-To-State voters.

Obama does his best amongst the younger voters (up to age 34) and in the Bay Area. Edwards does his best among men and Los Angeles area voters. But even in these categories, Clinton leads.

The Republican Presidential Race in California

This is a very fluid race. Giuliani leads with 25% of the vote. But Fred Thompson has made a strong showing shortly after announcing he is exploring entering the race and has 16% of the vote to John McCain's 14%. The big loser appears to be Mitt Romney at 5%.

Ironically, despite having been the mayor of the largest city in the United States, New York, Giuliani fares best in the more rural and small town area of the state, the Central Valley.

Thompson does his best amongst conservatives and older voters. McCain does his best amongst liberals (how many of them are in the Republican party in this state?) where he ties Giuliani, and moderates where he is within the margin of error, but is way behind Giuliani and Thompson when it comes to conservatives.

Perhaps the most startling finding is that a full 30% of the young (under age 34) voters support "other" candidates than the top four in the Republican race. When coupled with the 9% who have not stated a choice at all, there may be 39% of the GOP youth vote up for grabs in the California primary.

Bush and Iraq

The President has a 25% approval rating amongst California adults and only 24% with California voters with 68% of them disapproving.

Just 19% of Californians (22% of voters) say they approve of the President’s handling of the situation in Iraq, while 71% disapprove (72% of voters). Less than half as many Californians (27% overall and 30% of voters) saying they believe what President Bush tells the American people is true, as those who say they do not believe the president (61% of adults and 62% of voters).

Bush’s status in California has plummeted so badly that his approval rating among Republicans is 45-46% and his approval on Iraq among Republicans is 41-50%. Only 53% of Republican voters say they believe the president tells the truth while 37% do not believe he speaks truthfully.

Bush's low ratings are not confined to the war. While he fares better on his handling of the economy, just 32% approve of this while 58% disapprove.

In a finding that augurs well for passage of the ballot initiative being proposed by Senate President pro Tem Don Perata, only 26% of Californians feel the Iraq War has been worth it versus 64% who do not.

About the Poll

This poll was taken between June 18 and 22 and has a margin of error of 3.1% for all adults, 3.8% for voters, and 3.9% for likely voters. Although not stated, presumably the results for the primary elections are of likely voters, although the numbers would not change all that much if it was of voters.