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Clinton Campaign Memo Shows Hope for Latino Vote After L.A. Mayor Villaraigosa Endorsement

[Editor's note: Here in full is the memo received this morning from the Clinton campaign following the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa showing the strategy, hope, and spin in winning the Democratic nomination for President on the strength of Latino voters, a large segment of the Democratic vote in California and the nation.]

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Mark Penn and Sergio Bendixen
DATE: May 30, 2007
RE: Hillary Clinton’s support among Latino voters

Today's key endorsement from Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is proof that the Clinton Campaign's focus and strategy to win the Latino vote continues to grow stronger. Mayor Villaraigosa is one of America's great mayors and a dynamic national leader, who will play a key role in the campaign, advising on a range of policy issues that he focuses on every day as the mayor of America's second-largest city.

Hillary Clinton has a significant lead with Latino voters across the board and they will play a pivotal role in Nevada, and in many key Feb 5th states – they are critical in California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey – and contribute to her lead in those states and other smaller states as well. They have been growing in Democratic support, and in the general election, they have steadily grown in importance. Latino voters have great respect for Senator Clinton. They have risen from 2% of the electorate in 1992 to what is likely to be about 7% in 2008. In the 2004 presidential election, an estimated 82% turned out to vote. Along with women, Hispanics are one of her most supportive and most important support groups. While George Bush captured about 40% of the Latino vote, Hillary is poised to reclaim the Latino vote that Democrats lost in 2004.

1. Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among Latino voters.

In the Latino Policy Coalition poll, 60% of Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton, compared with 12% or less for her opponents.

Latino Policy Coalition – Lake Research Partners March 13 and 21, 2007; Among Hispanics Democratic Primary Vote/Favorability
HRC 60 68
Obama 12 48
Richardson 9 38
Edwards 7 44

2. In key states with large Hispanic populations, Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming lead.

California (441 delegates) – Feb 5 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 16% Latino
2004 general electorate: 21% Latino
2006 general electorate: 19% Latino

In California, Clinton has a 13 point lead overall, widening to 41 points among Hispanics.

Field Poll March 20-31 Among all D primary voters Among Hispanics
HRC 41 59
Obama 28 18
Edwards 13 11

New York (280 delegates) – Feb 5 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 11% Latino
2004 general electorate: 9% Latino
2006 general electorate: 7% Latino

In New York, Clinton has a 22 point lead overall, widening to 47 points among Hispanics.

Siena Poll April 16-20 Among all D primary voters Among Hispanics
HRC 39 63
Obama 17 16
Edwards 11 0
Richardson 4 0

Texas (228 delegates) – Potential Feb 5 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 24% Latino
2004 general electorate: 20% Latino
2006 general electorate: 15% Latino

In Texas, Clinton leads by 15 points *

Burnt Orange Report March 22 Among all D primary voters
HRC 35
Edwards 20
Obama 15
Richardson 8

Florida (210 delegates) – Jan 29 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 9% Latino
2004 general electorate: 15% Latino
2006 general electorate: 11% Latino

In Florida, Clinton leads by 21 points*

Quinnipiac April 17-24 Among all D primary voters
HRC 36
Gore 15
Obama 13
Edwards 11
Richardson 2

New Jersey (127 delegates) – Feb 5 Primary
2006 general electorate: 9% Latino
2004 general electorate: 10% Latino

In New Jersey, Clinton leads by 22 points*

Quinnipiac April 10-16 Among all D primary voters
HRC 38
Obama 16
Gore 12
Edwards 9
Richardson 2

Colorado (71 delegates) – Potential Feb 5 Caucus
2004 general electorate: 8% Latino

In Colorado, Clinton leads by 11 points*

ARG March 29-April 2 Among all D caucus-goers
HRC 34
Obama 23
Gore 13
Edwards 8
Richardson 1

Arizona (67 delegates) – Potential Feb 5 Primary
2004 D primary electorate: 17% Latino
2004 general electorate: 12% Latino
2006 general electorate: 12% Latino

In Arizona, Clinton leads by 7 points*

Rocky Mountain Poll March 10-21 Among all D caucus-goers
HRC 27
Obama 20
Gore 10
Edwards 9
Richardson 7

New Mexico (38 delegates) – Feb 5 Caucus
2004 general electorate: 32% Latino
2006 general electorate: 31% Latino

In New Mexico, Clinton is second only to Governor Bill Richardson*

ARG Jan 11-13 Among all D caucus-goers
Richardson 28
HRC 22
Obama 17
Edwards 12

Nevada (31 delegates) – Jan 19 Caucus
2006 general electorate: 13% Latino

In Nevada, Clinton leads by 24 points*

Mason Dixon April 30-May 1 Among all D caucus-goers
HRC 37
Edwards 13
Obama 12
Gore 9
Richardson 6

3. Hillary Clinton has very high favorability among Hispanics nationally.

NBC/WSJ March 2-5; Among Hispanics Favorability
HRC 61
Barack Obama 28

4. Hillary’s Record

Hillary Clinton understands the challenges Latino voters face and for thirty-five years she’s worked to solve them. While in law school Hillary researched the education and health of migrant children and after law school, she turned down lucrative jobs to work for the Children's Defense Fund because she wanted to make sure every child would grow up being nurtured and protected. She championed a bill that gave millions of uninsured children health insurance. She has been fighting to raise the minimum wage. And she has remained committed to providing more qualified teachers, better daycare, and college mentoring to help our children succeed. Just last week, Hillary Clinton proposed expanding pre-kindergarten classes to serve all of America's 4-year-olds today, providing them with a high-quality early education that studies show leads to higher achievement, graduation rates and higher-earning careers. Proposals such as these particularly benefit Latino families -- in 2005, twenty two percent of children under the age of five were Latino.

Hillary Clinton strongly supports comprehensive immigration reform, family reunification, and the DREAM Act, which would enable students who are the children of non-citizens to pursue higher education without residency restrictions. She remains committed to addressing healthcare disparities, sponsoring legislation which allows legal immigrant children and pregnant women to obtain Medicaid and SCHIP.

Hillary Clinton recently introduced an amendment to remove barriers to reunification for the nuclear families of lawful permanent residents. The amendment would reclassify the spouses and minor children of lawful permanent immigrants as “immediate relatives,” thereby exempting them from the visa caps. She did this because Hillary Clinton knows, “The United States is a country built by immigrants, but our laws are tearing legal immigrant families apart.”

Hillary Clinton’s support of sensible immigration reform, including earned citizenship and family reunification has helped her win strong support in the Latino community. Her support for universal health care, a higher minimum wage, universal pre-kindergarten and full funding for Head Start also help explain why she is so popular among Latinos.

5. Campaign

Hillary Clinton is showing her commitment to the Hispanic community and eagerness to hear from them. She has staffed the highest levels of her campaign with highly qualified Hispanics, starting with her campaign manager Patti Solis-Doyle – the first Latina ever to lead a presidential campaign.

Hispanic Communications Director, Fabiola Rodríguez-Ciampoli
Hispanic Outreach Director, Laura Peña
Deputy Political Director for Northeast States, Edgar Santana
California Communications Director, Luís Vizcaino
California Field Director, Michael Trujillo
Consultant María Echaveste (White House Deputy Chief of Staff under President Clinton)
Strategist Sergio Bendixen
Raúl Yzaguirre
Former President, National Council of La Raza
Campaign Role: National Co-Chair, Chair of Hispanic Outreach
Fabián Núñez
Speaker of the CA Assembly
Campaign Role: National Co-Chair
Dolores Huerta
Co-founder, United Farm Workers
Campaign Role: Co-Chair of Hispanic Outreach

*signifies no crosstab available among Hispanics

Posted on May 30, 2007

Comments

Senator Clinton has worked hard to establish an identity and a record of accomplishment in the US Senate.

She has been successful and is well known as a person of substance.

Throughout her career the Senator has been a champion and advocate for the less powerful members of society.

Senator Clinton is the right candidate to restore America's sense of fairness toward the working classes and to establish the committment that every American will have an equal chance to succeed.

Robert Chapman
Lansing, NY

Posted by: robert chapman at May 30, 2007 06:22 PM

But what has she done for the hispanic community other than receive endorsements of hispanic leaders?

Posted by: Todd Beeton at June 1, 2007 09:25 AM

I am very glad that Senator Hillary Clinton has surrounded herself with highly qualified Hispanic professionals such as Mrs. Rodriguez-Ciampoli, a person of integrity that I personally know (I helped her with Spanish translations for web documents during Sen. Kerry's presidential campaign). I do plan to support Mrs. Clinton during her presidential bid for the White House.

Eng. Angel Arturo Viladegut
MSEE, MBA, JD (expected 2011)

Posted by: Angel Arturo Viladegut at June 1, 2007 09:25 PM

JUST A THOUGHT

Several decades ago, immigrants from Hispanic origin came to the USA. They didn’t bother to participate in politics. They came to work and nothing else. Why to bother if the country was going OK. They didn’t speak the language very well and they thought let’s leave politics in the hands of those who are in power. Working and keeping a job was their main goal. Many even didn’t bother to change their immigrant status as residents.

But a couple of years ago, particularly this year, something happened. Because they can not be recognized or distinguished by appearance, with the so called illegals, they started to realize that they had to become citizens to obtain a higher level of protection. They realized that they were being demonized. Many of them are coming to vote for the first time.

Some of this population belongs to the group that came with the amnesty offered by President Reagan in 1986-1988. They too started to become citizens. There is no way that anyone can identify an illegal alien just by looking at them. They could be legally here; they could have lived in the U.S. for generations.

The rampant xenophobia encased in fear of terrorism has made it critical for the legal immigrants, once illegal, to acquire the status that would grant them immunity from narrow legal persecution. However, it is not strange that in this xenophobic wave these people are feeling being threatened and insulted..

In the meantime, the Republicans had their chance for about 6 years to make a statement that the republican party would take care of the American people and they really showed they don't care by their non-actions and clearly directed actions against inmigrants.

It is true that some Democrats such as Jim Webb, Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill vote with the majority of Republicans to kill the Senate immigration compromise, without offering a realistic and achievable alternative that would establish a more humane policy.

But, it is also undeniable that the most vicious, the most wretched, the most offensive, the most revolting, the most ruthless, the most vilifying, the most repulsive attacks have come and are still coming from Republicans.

Just a few examples to illustrate it.
1) Sensebrenner wanted the criminalization of these people.
2) Newt Gingrich, Former House speaker, who coined Spanish as the Language of the gheto
3) Fred Thompson just slammed Cubans, suggesting that they come to America not in search of freedom, but to bring “suitcase bombs.”
4) Tancredo, no comments
5) J.D Hayworth, not reelected, but still instilling hate, same no comments.

There are more cases. The list goes on.

One thing is certain, the Republicans were mum on all issues with immigration reform as just one of them. They controlled the white house and congress. If there is anytime in which a party is able to get things done, it's when they don't have anyone to really interfere.
Immigration was just one of them.

Therefore, it seems to me that the most recalcitrant and extreme positions are from Republicans, where no room is for middle ground.

So Republicans have done this at a national level. Pretty transparent move they did, and now the immigrant population, particularly the Hispanic immigrants are aware of this issue.

At any rate, this is the beginning of the legal immigrant backlash directed against the Republican Party for their position on the immigration bill.

By your actions, you shall be judged.!

Posted by: memo at July 7, 2007 07:24 PM

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