California Voters Support Term Limit and Redistricting Changes According to New PPIC Poll: What These Early Numbers Really Mean

The Limits on Legislators’ Terms in Office Initiative Constitutional Amendment reduces the total amount of time a person may serve in the state legislature from 14 years to 12 years. It allows a person to serve a total of 12 years either in the assembly, the senate, or a combination of both. It provides a transition period to allow current members to serve a total of 12 consecutive years in the house in which they are currently serving, regardless of any prior service in another house. There would be no direct fiscal impact on state and local governments. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on this measure?

Gale Kaufman, who is the chief campaign strategist for the Committee for Term Limits and Legislative Reform which is supporting the term limit changes crowed about the results, saying:

"When we introduced this initiative, we knew that voters support the concept of term limits, but are unfamiliar with the specifics of how they work. Further, we believed that when our initiative was explained to them, the voters would support this common sense reform. The PPIC survey results validate our views.

This poll is the third independent statewide poll that has demonstrated a continued pattern of majority support, regardless of party affiliation, for our initiative and aligns with our own polling."

Well over 500,000 Californians so far have signed petitions to place this common sense reform onto the ballot, despite deceptive, negative campaign stunts from U.S. Term Limits. While their cynical lawsuit was rejected last week, we can expect more of the same from this out-of-state special interest group."

But the results of the PPIC Poll do not show overwhelming support and the common pattern is for ballot measures to lose support if a major campaign is waged against them and many that are ahead this early in the game go on to defeat. If the Governor and the legislature are in support of this measure and it is part of a package on the ballot with redistricting changes that are similarly supported by a broad coalition, then this poll bodes well for passage. This was what happened with the infrastructure bonds passed last November which actually gained support as the campaign was waged.

The PPIC survey also showed the voters are woefully uninformed of the actual term limits that exist right now--only one percent of both likely voters and California adults knew that since 1990 14 years is the maximum time limit for a California legislator to be in office (6 years in the Assembly and 8 years in the Senate). 21% fessed up that they didn't know, and the answers ranged from :less than 1 year" (held by 2%!) to "no limit/as long as they want." The most popular response was 8 years, identified by 20% of respondents.

When given the information about the term of term limits that now apply, a strong majority, 61% felt this was the right amount, with 23% saying it was too little and 12% saying it was too much.

Legislative Redistricting

Likely voters and Californians as a whole strongly think it is a "bad idea" for the legislature and the governor to make decisions about redistricting (by a margin of 67% to 25% of likely voters and strongly support having districts drawn by "an independent Citizens Redistricting Commission." The commission approach is supported by 56% of likely voters and opposed by 36%. These results hold across the board for Democrats, Republicans, and those not registered with either major party, although the margin is greater for Republicans to favor a commission and Democrats are less inclined at 51% support and 41% opposition.

When asked: "What if voting districts were drawn by members of the Little Hoover commission, a bipartisan independent state oversight agency comprised on 9 citizens and 4 legislators?" likely voters were opposed by a margin of 48% to 42%. This particular finding must be taken with several large spoons of salt, however, because the proposal that Speaker of the Assembly Fabian Nunez has put on the table for the Little Hoover to redraw the lines specifically excludes the legislative members of that body.

Also, political professionals who interpret polls in this context believe voters provide valid responses when they are answering questions that test values and that asking exam-like questions that voters can't answer have only tangential value. For instance, even with the detail that legislators on the Little Hoover Commission would not be involved, the question, would you rather any decision be made for you by (a) "an independent citizens commission" or (b) the "Little Hoover Commission"? begs the question. The former sounds good. No one knows what the Little Hoover Commission is.

About the Poll Itself and the Election

The Public Policy Institute is a highly respected non-partisan, nonprofit organization. The survey was taken between May 15th and May 22nd by telephone of 2,005 California adult residents, a large sample. The margin of error for all adults is 2%, for the 1465 registered voters surveyed is 2.5%, and for the 986 likely voters is 3%.

One other consideration: Just who will turn out for the February 2008 Presidential primary election is largely an unknown and will depend on who is in the race and how excited voters are about their choices in each party. Decline to state voters may vote in the Democratic primary for President but not in the Republican primary, unless party rules are changed. Elections occur after a campaign and in a context. Those who vote decide them.