Polling Memo Shows Clinton Ahead, But Race is Fluid in California Democratic Horserace for President

Although Clinton is better known and has higher overall favorables, Obama and Edwards are better liked among voters who know them. Whereas Clinton’s average favorability rating (a figure which takes into account both the direction and intensity of feeling) is 3.04 (slightly above somewhat favorable), Edwards’ average among those who know him is 3.15 and Obama’s is 3.13.

While Senator Clinton is almost universally known among California Democratic primary voters, with firm impressions established in voters’ minds, her opponents have room for growth. Among voters paying very close attention to the presidential primary, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77%; she is equally popular (79%) among those paying somewhat close attention, and drops significantly in favorability (63%) among those not paying close attention, though she does maintain her name identification at 94% or higher across all three segments. Obama is known by 90% of those paying close attention, and viewed favorably by 73%; among those paying somewhat close attention, 80% know him and 69% like him; among those not paying close attention, just 59% have heard of him and 45% are favorable towards him. Edwards is known by 83% of those paying close attention to the presidential primary, but known by just 69% of those not paying close attention. He is viewed favorably by 72% of those paying very close attention, 66% of those paying somewhat close attention, and 56% of those not paying close attention.

Clinton Holds A Substantial Lead, Followed By Obama And Edwards

Among California Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton leads with 38% of the vote, followed by Barack Obama (19%) and John Edwards (17%). No other candidate receives more than 4% of the vote, while fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

Clinton’s lead is slightly greater (41%) among those paying very close attention to the primary, while Edwards and Obama tie for second place with 18% each. However, among those paying only somewhat close attention, Clinton’s support slips slightly to 36% while Obama’s support jumps to 25%, and Edwards receives 16%. Democratic primary voters who are not closely following the election are the least supportive of Obama, offering him just 13% of their vote, compared to 38% to Clinton and 17% to Edwards.

The race is far more competitive among voters who are familiar with all three top-tier candidates. Among these voters, Clinton’s total drops to 34%, while Obama’s support increases to 24% and Edwards’ support rises to 20%; just 10% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided. This provides further evidence that part of Senator Clinton’s lead is based on her higher name recognition, an advantage that could disappear as primary day approaches.

Clinton Strikes A Chord With Voters Most Concerned About Economic Insecurity

Clinton’s candidacy is resonating with the least economically advantaged voters in California. Her support is particularly strong among those who believe that they are falling behind the cost of living (43%), compared to 19% supporting Obama and 15% supporting Edwards. Those who feel they are just keeping even with the cost of living also strongly prefer Clinton (38%) over Obama (17%) and Edwards (18%). Interestingly, Obama does best with those who believe their incomes are rising faster than the cost of living (28%), followed by Clinton (26%) and Edwards (22%).

Likewise, Clinton performs very strongly among lower and working class voters, capturing a majority (50%) of their support, compared to 18% backing Obama and 9% supporting Edwards. Non-college educated middle class voters also prefer Clinton (44%) to Obama (19%) and Edwards (14%). The race tightens dramatically among college-educated middle class voters, where Clinton’s 26% is much closer to Obama and Edwards’ 19% apiece. Upper and upper-middle class voters give Clinton a bit more of a cushion, but the race is still competitive: 34% support Clinton, while 23% favor Edwards and 22% favor Obama.

Similarly, educational attainment provides one of the strongest cleavages in the electorate: Clinton is favored by 60% of voters with high school degrees or less, just 11% of whom support Obama and 8% support Edwards. Voters with college degrees or post-graduate study are split, giving a slim advantage to Clinton (26%) over Obama (23%) and Edwards (21%).

Not surprisingly, women are more enthusiastic about Clinton’s candidacy, with 45% supporting her compared to 29% of men. Just 15% of women favor Edwards, compared to 19% of men, while Obama pulls in support from 21% of men and 18% of women. Overall, seniors prefer Clinton (41%) over Obama (19%) and Edwards (17%); older women in particular are likely to throw their support behind Clinton (47%) and are lukewarm towards Obama (14%) and Edwards (17%). Older men are less enthusiastic towards Clinton (32%), but have not yet warmed up to Obama (21%) or Edwards (16%). Younger women are also highly supportive of Clinton (41%), and give a lift to Obama (25%) over Edwards (11%). Younger men are least supportive of Clinton (24%), but still give her a very slight edge over Obama (21%) and Edwards (23%).

Jobs and education are strengths for Clinton in California. She is most successful among voters who attach relatively high importance to job creation (45%) and education (43%). Like Clinton, Edwards’ support increases among people deeply concerned about creating jobs: 24% of these voters support Edwards, compared to 17% statewide. By contrast, Obama does best among those who rank environmental issues at the top of their agenda (31%).

Democratic Primary Voters Now Believe Clinton Has The Best Chance Of Winning The General

Part of Senator Clinton’s current advantage stems from the perception that she would be the strongest candidate in November. Over one third (38%) of primary voters believe that Clinton has the best chance of capturing the Presidency, while 17% see Obama as having the best chance and 15% think that Edwards would be the strongest candidate in the general election. Nearly three quarters (70%) of Clinton’s own supporters believe she has the best chance of winning, whereas just half (49%) of Obama supporters say that their candidate has the best chance in the general election. Likewise, 50% of Edwards voters believe he has the best chance.

Obama Picks Up The Most Support As A Second Choice Candidate

Obama is the plurality (27%) second choice candidate, suggesting he has the ability to pick up votes as other candidates falter or are winnowed out of the process. Twenty percent (20%) say Edwards would be their second choice, with Clinton at 17%; nearly a quarter (23%) would be undecided if their first choice were not running. Obama is even more strongly favored as the second choice candidate by those who feel they are falling behind the cost of living (32%); Edwards captures just 20% of their second-choice support and Clinton 17%.

Clinton’s supporters are more likely to move towards Obama: 38% would support him if she were no longer in the race, while just 23% of her supporters would throw their support to Edwards. Likewise, Edwards’ supporters favor Obama as their second choice (37%) over Clinton (18%), while 26% remain undecided. Obama’s supporters move heavily towards Clinton (43%), with 28% favoring Edwards and 20% undecided. All this suggests that Senator Clinton may have reached her high water mark, should the race still be competitive at the time of the California primary.

Paid for by Working Californians. Brian D'Arcy and Marvin Kropke Co-Chairs.

Julia Rosen worked in DC for several years before coming to work for the Alliance for a Better California. She is currently blogging for Working Californians where this article appeared. It is republished with their permission.