Giuliani Leads in California, But Dems Lead All Top Republicans for President in General Election

What is interesting here is that while 77% of Republican voters say there is a good chance or some chance they would vote for Giuliani and only 19% of them say there is "no chance" they will do so in the Republican primary, the results for the other candidates is decidedly more negative. Much more negative than amongst the top 4 Democratic contenders. McCain comes the closest with 64% saying there is a good or some chance they would vote for him, but 33% of Republicans say there is no chance. The numbers go even higher for the other candidates and are in the 40 percent or more range. The highest level by contrast amongst the top 4 Democrats shows 23% who said there was no chance they would vote for one of them in the primary.

It's still early, but with these numbers other Republicans are gong up a hill in the California primary.

The Big Matchup in November of 2008

Giuliani loses by double digits to Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in pairings for November. Clinton wins 53% to 40%, Obama 51% to 40%, and Edwards 51% to 41%.

McCain loses by 7 to 12 points, and the results are surprising here, even given the sample size. Clinton beats McCain 48% to 43% by just 5 points. Obama beats him by the largest margin, 51% to 39%, or 12 points. Edwards wins against McCain by 49% to 42%, a 7 point edge.

The numbers are all within the margin of error as to matchups against Giuliani, with Clinton doing the best, beating him by 13 points while Obama does so by 11 points and Edwards by 10 points. But the Obama results against McCain are statistically different and stronger than Clinton and Edwards at 5 points and 7 point advantages respectively.

The cross tabs are really interesting here. Democrats decisively win the "non-partisan-other" segment of the vote. The closest is the matchup between Clinton and Giuliani where she gets 49% of this part of the vote to Giuliani getting 35%--a 14 point advantage.

When it comes to a potential race against McCain, Obama has a much higher share of the non partisan-other vote which he wins 62% to 26%--or by 36 points. Clinton has a 23 point margin here and Edwards a 22 point margin. Obama also loses the Republican vote by 10 points less than Clinton when up against McCain, but he also gets a much lower percentage of the Democratic vote in this matchup (only 75% to 16%) versus Clinton's 82% to 14%.

Take a look at Table 6 of the poll and see the numbers for yourself.

It's early, but this is interesting.