California Senate District 23 Preview

A recent survey commissioned by EdVoice confirms this analysis. Assemblywoman Fran Pavley enters the primary contest for State Senate with a significant edge. She is well positioned as she holds advantages in both name identification and personal favorability, as well as in the head to head match-up with Levine.

While a fair amount of voters remain undecided at this early stage, several indicators point to Pavley’s ability to win this contest. On the initial ballot test, Pavley garners a strong lead over Levine, 35 – 15 percent, with 49 percent undecided. Much of the former Assemblywoman’s advantage comes from her significant lead in her former district. Pavley holds a large 53 -11 percent advantage in the 41st Assembly District she once represented, which makes up nearly half of the 23rd Senate District. (Levine’s district is only 9% of the Senate district. Therefore, there are not sufficient enough interviews in this portion of the district to assess the survey results with statistical certainty.)

In assessing the survey results by religious affiliation, Pavley leads among all religious groups. Importantly, she enjoys a 35 – 16 percent advantage among Jews, which make up the largest religious group among Democratic primary voters in this district. In fact, she performs even better among Jews than she currently does with either Catholics or Protestants despite the fact that her opponent is Jewish and she is not.

After hearing balanced positive biographical profiles on each candidate, Pavley’s lead expands to 52 – 30 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with 18 percent undecided. Voters react positively to Pavley’s leadership on educational and environmental issues. Her authorship of global warming legislation also resonates strongly in this district, with 87 percent of primary voters indicating they would be more likely to vote for a senate candidate with that accomplishment on her resume.

Pavley also has an edge in name identification and personal favorability. She is known by 42 percent of voters, receiving 28 percent favorable ratings and 5 percent unfavorable ratings. Levine is not well known or particularly well received by voters here: only 26 percent identify and can rate him, and he garners just 11 percent positive ratings.

Pavley’s good initial standing with voters and the positive reaction to her profile put her in a strong position to win the primary election for State Senate next June.

Ben Tulchin is Associate Vice President of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Director of the firm’s California office.