Bush at Record Low in New California Poll--23%! Just 5% of Democrats Approve of Iraq Policies While 94% Disapprove--Schwarzenegger by Contrast is Popular

On terrorism, once a Republican strong point, the numbers are also negative--33% approval and 60% disapproval from voters and virtually the same from all Californians. A majority of voters (51%) feel the War in Iraq has made the United States less safe, while only 20% feel it has made us safer and 24% express the opinion that it has made no difference.

On the economy, 29% of voters approve of Bush's handling and 66% disapprove.

In sharp contrast, Arnold Schwarzenegger has a 62% approval to 29% disapproval rating from California voters and a 57% to 30% favorable approval from Californians as a whole. This is a drop of 1% in approval and a 2% increase in disapproval from January, well within the range of the margin of error of the poll. The Public Policy Institute of California Poll released last week had slightly lower numbers and showed a 5 point drop. But both of these polls show the Governor is popular here, and the approval is across all demographic categories--regions, party, races, union households, even the Bay Area--except one category. There is a 48% to 44% disapproval amongst Latinos. That's still pretty high for a Republican, even if he is in a "post-partisan" motif.

On the right track/wrong track question there are dramatic differences between how we in California view the state and the nation. In the state, there is a sunny 52% to 38% favoring of voters of the right track. As to the nation, the numbers are more than even reversed--only 27% of voters feel we are going in the right direction and 66% feel "we are seriously off on the wrong track."

While some of the different ratings of Bush and Schwarzenegger may be correlated with the different feelings about the right and wrong track directions of the country and the state, and the relative optimism of Californians about our state and economy, (the PPIC Pollwas a bit more guarded and showed 40% feel our state's economy is headed for "good times" in the next 12 months and 51% that we are headed for "bad times") the Governor's tone and willingness to work with legislative Democrats clearly makes the bulk of the difference here.

Phil Trounstine, Director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute noted “The profiles of these two Republican leaders could hardly be more different. The president’s approval in California is significantly lower than Republican registration while the governor’s approval is significantly higher than Democratic registration. It’s a stunning divergence.”

Melinda Jackson, the survey's director and an assistant professor of political science at San Jose State University interpreted the data as showing that: “Californians clearly like the less partisan, cooperative tone the governor has set in Sacramento at the beginning of his second term. Schwarzenegger is currently starring as the country’s favorite moderate, which is refreshing to voters who are tired of the bitter partisanship that has characterized our national politics in recent years.”

The SPRI poll is of 846 California adults including 574 voters. It was conducted between March 26 and March 30, the latest public survey in California on these questions. It has a 3.4% margin of error for Californians and a 4% margin of error for voters.