California Field Poll Shows It's Just a Matter of Time Before We Have Same Sex Marriage in State

Support Levels for Same Sex Marriage

The Field poll questions have remained the same during the six surveys analyzed here. In 1985, only 30% of those polled supported same sex marriage. This increased to 38% in 1997, and the average for surveys in 2003-2006 showed support by 43%.

While only 25% of those born before 1940 are in support, that number has grown by 5% over these years. Those born in the 1940's are supportive at 40%, also a gain of 5%. Similar 7 and 8% increases are found for those born in the 1950's and 1960's, reaching above the 40% threshold. Those born in the 1970's and 1980's are in support by 51% and 58%.

The same trends are apparent over time in those who identify themselves as "liberals" (increasing from 43% to 76%, a gain of 33 points) and "moderates" (climbing from 31 to 44%, a gain of 15 points). However, amongst self-styled "conservatives" a reverse trend is seen and the numbers have dipped from 20% support to 15%. There is an astonishing 61% spread between liberals and conservatives on this issue.

The same general patterns hold for partisan identification, with Democrats supportive at a level of 59%, independents at 41%, and Republicans at 23%. There has been a marked shift in increased support over time amongst Democrats and independents, while Republicans are slightly less supportive by 3 points.

Support has increased in every religious group identified, but the lowest level of support is amongst Protestants at 28% and represents a gain of only 4%. Catholics jumped 13% to 38% support. Those with "No religion" had the highest level of support at 71% followed by those who are Jewish at 70% (reported as being a small sample, but with this number being higher it must be of statistical significance), and "Other religions" at 55%.

Asians showed the highest support level based on race or ethnicity at 55%. White non-Hispanics at 46% followed this, then Latinos at 35% and Blacks (a small sample) at 23%. There were strong gains in each of these except for blacks, which were down by 1%, probably statistically insignificant, except in indicating no real change as opposed to other categories.

There appears to be a gender gap with female support at 47% and male support at 39%.

There is a strong correlation with level of education with college graduates supportive at 64%, followed by some college at 41%, and high school or less being at 34%.

Changes in Personal Attitudes towards "Homosexual" Relations between Consenting Adults

While there is much data that is broken down here, the main point is that those polled indicated much more often that they now have a "more accepting" attitude towards same sex relationships than the reverse.

Overall, 45% report more acceptance, and 9% less acceptance, with 47% indicating no change. While there are some variations on this theme, the least dramatic is amongst Republicans who are "only" more accepting by a margin of 39% to 13%. The other results are even more lopsided.

The Academic Paper Presented This Afternoon

Aside from the analysis published by Field, the professors who authored this 22 page paper have provided references to a number of other academic papers and source material and some of their own explanation for the data and what it means for public policy in California.

For instance, on page 3:

Although 61% of voters passed a voter initiative (Proposition 22) in 2000 declaring, “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California,” the state legislature created “domestic partnerships” three years later, providing same-sex couples the vast majority of rights, responsibilities, and benefits that accrue from civil marriage. Each subsequent legislative session has expanded the rights of domestic partners to more closely match those of married couples. In 2005, the legislature became the first to vote to establish civil marriage equality for same-sex couples; Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed it, arguing at that time, ironically, that the decision should be left to the courts or, possibly, the voters. [Citation omitted]

Somewhat surprisingly, this action did not create a backlash among the electorate. An initiative effort to amend the state constitution failed to gather enough signatures, same-sex marriage was not an issue in the 2006 campaign, and no legislator who supported it was voted out of office. “The Religious Freedom and Civil Marriage Protection Act,” allowing same-sex couples to marry, was reintroduced on the first day of the 2007 legislative session. Advocates believe that voters elected even more supporters in 2006, making passage likely once again (Perry 2007). The Speaker of the House was a lead author of the bill in 2005, and the President Pro Tem of the Senate is a principal co-author in 2007; approximately one third of each house is currently a named sponsor of the bill (Equality California 2007). The governor has already indicated that he intends to veto the legislation again, emphasizing this time that voters should be the ones to legalize same-sex marriages since they passed the law barring recognition of them (Hecht 2007). Progress may still come through the courts. The state supreme court is expected to rule soon on the issue (In re Marriage Cases 2006); even if it decides that the state constitution does not require a right to marriage for same-sex couples, it will almost certainly not prevent the legislature from establishing such a right.

They indicate that the language used by Field in the particular question about same sex marriage has never been asked of a national sample. Nevertheless, they find the level of approval in California is higher than in 42 other states and that there has been more growth in support in our state for this proposition.

Hopefully, the paper will be published or made available on the web as it is directly relevant to Governor Schwarzenegger's statement last week that he would veto a legislative approval of same sex marriage. If this has to go to the people, it stands a much better chance, and it would be nice to see the Governor support this publicly.