Moving the California Presidential Primary Up is a Terrible and a Good Idea

By Thomas Gangale

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has come out in favor of moving the Golden State's presidential primary from June to early February. His cause is just: California should matter in the selection of the presidential nominees. At the same time, however, given that California is one-eighth of the nation, moving our primary to early February is the ultimate word in "frontloading" the presidential nomination calendar.

The evil of frontloading has been with us for two decades. Over the years, states have moved their caucuses and primaries forward, racing each other to the front of the calendar. Paradoxically, this steady compression of the calendar means that fewer states matter rather than more. When Howard Dean suspended his campaign in late February 2004, only about 20 percent of the delegates to the Democratic convention had been chosen; 80 percent of Americans were disenfranchised. Recently, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe predicted that the 2008 presidential nominations will be determined by February 5th. Obviously, if California's primary remains in June, California won't matter.

California used to matter. In 1968, Bobby Kennedy's victory in California put him in a solid position to prevail over Hubert Humphrey. In 1976, California gave Ronald Reagan nearly enough momentum to carry him to a floor fight with Gerald Ford at the Republican convention.

There are sound reasons for starting the presidential campaign in a few small states, then gradually ramping up the stakes as the campaign moves on to more and larger states in the quest for delegates to the national conventions. We should return to a relaxed schedule that allowed door-to-door campaigning in small, early states, the "retail politicking" that provided so-called "minor" candidates a more level playing field--"minor" candidates such as Gene McCarthy in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976. As things stand today, such candidates are overwhelmed early in the season by big-budget campaigns that carpet-bomb the air waves in huge media markets.

Putting California up front, where about one-fourth of the country is already, means the death of retail politicking in all but the four small states that have been allowed a privileged "pre-window" status in January. California will matter, not because of how its citizens vote, but by ensuring that each party's presidential nominee will be the candidate who raises the most money before the first vote is cast.

It's a terrible idea... and I love it!

Comments

Posted by: Larry Sork at January 24, 2007 08:42 PM

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