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Final California Election Returns Reveal Interesting Patterns and Quirks in Statewide Office Races Starting with Schwarzenegger's Win

By Frank D. Russo
The final results are now up on the California Secretary of State's website, ready to be certified, but the numbers should not change.
A higher than expected number of voters trooped to the polls and voted absentee. We have a companion piece on that part of the analysis.
While many folks formed their impressions of the election results the day after the election when the winners and losers of all statewide offices were known and reported, a record number of votes were counted after then and trickled in until yesterday. Some post election day accepted wisdom should give way to the reality of these final figures.
Much has been ballyhooed about the size of Governor Schwarzenegger's victory. He received 55.9% of the vote compared with 39% for Phil Angelides. This is not to be discounted because of the fact that Schwarzenegger is a Republican in an Democratic state--and as many have noted, he ran on many Democratic ideas and bills he signed into law.
But Schwarzenegger's 16.9% spread is not the largest by any means. That honor goes to Senator Dianne Feinstein who won by a whopping 24.4% margin over Republican Dennis Mountjoy, 59.5% to 35.1%. Feinstein also got the largest vote total of any statewide candidate, over 5 million votes. Hers was probably the largest vote total for any candidate nationwide in this election.
Jerry Brown won his race for Attorney General by an 18.1% margin, 56.3% to 38.2% over former State Senator Chuck Poochigian.
Bill Lockyer, in his race for Treasurer against the peripatetic Claude Parrish triumphed by 17.1% with the final percentages at 54.4% to 37.3%.
While 8,899,059 Californians voted in November, only 8,679,059 voted in the Governor's race. 2.5% of the electorate left their ballots blank. In all other state races, there were fewer total votes. The second highest total votes were in the US Senate race where 8,541,150 voted, meaning a little over 4% left their ballots blank.
Minor party candidates received 5.1% of the vote, with Green Party candidate Peter Camejo getting 2.3% statewide. Camejo's highest numbers came from Santa Cruz County at 6.9%, Humboldt at 6.8%, Mendocino at 6% and San Francisco at 5.4%. Despite the fact that the result of the Governor's race was a foregone conclusion, there were very few voters who cast a symbolic vote for the Green Party or other minor candidates at the top of the ballot.
In some of the "down ticket" races, the numbers were a bit different, with the high water mark being the race for Insurance Commissioner where 10.6% voted for minor party candidates. The Libertarian Party candidate in that race received 3.7% of the vote, topping the Greens and other minor party candidates.
The statewide map showing county by county results in the Governor's race is most revealing. Angelides carried only 6 counties statewide: Los Angeles and the Bay Area Counties of Marin, Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz, and in four of these counties he won, he received less than 50% of the vote. Only in the most liberal county in the state, San Francisco, where he won 62.8% of the vote (to 29.8% for Schwarzenegger) and Alameda County where he got 57% of the vote, did he crack the 50% barrier.
Angelides carried LA County, but by an anemic 49.1% to 46.1%. This gave him less than a 60,000 vote advantage in the state's biggest county. It is not that Democrats did not turnout (although LA was below the statewide average in turnout again) as other Democrats who won statewide offices racked up much higher percentages. Debra Bowen, who won the Secretary of State office by the closest margin statewide (3.1%) roared out of LA with 58% of the vote and a 448,203 vote advantage there that was more than her margin of victory in the state. Others had higher percentages, and even Cruz Bustamante who got crushed statewide won LA County by twice the margin as Angelides. There was a lot of ticket splitting going on in Los Angeles.
Schwarzenegger carried Orange County, with the second highest number of registered voters by a bone crushing 69.7% to 25.5%. He carried other counties outside of the Orange Curtain by higher margins, including 14 rural counties where he exceeded 70% of the vote. Tiny Glenn County proved to be the most conservative county of all--for Schwarzenegger, the Republican ticket, and ballot measures. In Glenn, Schwarzenegger won 76.6% of the vote to Angelides 18.9%, a staggering 58.7% gap.
Schwarzenegger carried Imperial County by a mere 339 votes. Why is that important in a race he won statewide in a landslide? Because that is one of the two counties in the 80th Assembly District, the hottest contested Assembly race where incumbent Republican Bonnie Garcia won over Steve Clute, the Democratic nominee by the slimmest of margins. Despite the Governor's race being that close, Garcia won Imperial County by 1991 votes, just about her entire margin of victory in the two counties that are in her district. If Clute had done just a little bit better than Angelides performance in Imperial County, he would have won that seat. Many voters must have split their tickets-- voted for Angelides and then voted for Garcia, since about the same number voted in the Governor's race as in the Assembly race.
But in Counties where the gap between Schwarzenegger and Angelides exceeded or neared 50%, it is amazing any Democrats had a chance at all.
Oh, and by the way, Angelides got more votes than Republicans did in four statewide races: Poochigian (Attorney General), Claude Parrish (Treasurer), Tony Strickland (Controller) and Dennis Mountjoy (US Senator).
Comments
Excellent and extremely informative piece. Thanks so much.
I was especially happy to hear that Bonnie Garcia had won. I worked for her in 2004 gatherting Republican regs in Imperial County. It was rough-going. I'm fluent in Spanish, and was horrified at the extent of voter fraud by the Democrats with illegal voters voting in the District. I'd ask them in Spanish, "how can you be registered to vote if you're not a citizen." They'd reply that local political leaders said if they didn't vote Democrat they'd report them to the authorities.
Anyway, good thing Bonnie overcame that huge handicap. Her victory is a huge win for the forces opposed to voter fraud.
Eric at www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
Posted by: Eric Dondero at December 15, 2006 07:15 AM
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