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Field Poll: Turnout to Determine 3 State Offices: Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, and Controller

Garamendi in Virtual Tie with McClintock for Lieutenant Governor; Bowen Ahead by 6 in Secretary of State Race; Chiang has 7 Point Lead for Controller with Largest Undecideds.

Brown for AG, Lockyer for Treasurer, and Poizner for Insurance Commissioner Appear to be "In Like Flint"

By Frank D. Russo

The biggest news of the Field Poll released today on the "down ticket" races is that the voters who turn out at the polls on election day will be able to determine who the next Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Insurance Commissioner will be. You never want to take any of the races below Governor for granted, as voters often do not know more about the candidates than they have subconsciously gleaned from 15 second commercials, the mostly phony and paid for slate cards, junk mail that overflows our boxes, and those annoying pre-recorded robo calls.

Those who are walking and talking to voters, calling and emailing friends and family members, and trying to affect the outcomes of races, should pay special attention to these three races, as each of these offices have important but for most folks obscured powers that can affect the daily lives of Californians. Because of the little that even regular voters know about these candidates, there is the opportunity for those motivated to affect these races far more than the Governor's race and other items on the ballot.

John Garamendi, who has held office in the California Legislature, worked in the Clinton White House, and completed his second term as the state's Insurance Commissioner is in a statistical tie with arch conservative Tom McClintock who has been in the Legislature for decades and lost twice in bids for statewide office. Garamendi has 44% of the vote according to Field and McClintock has 43%, well within the margin of error of 3.5% of the poll. Only 13% of the predicted voters are undecided in this race, according to Field, the lowest of the competitive statewide races.

The race between Democrat Garamendi and Republican McClintock presents the starkest difference of political philosophy of any of these races. This is why Garamendi and McClintock each take the lion's share of their respective party's vote. Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Field Poll, was quoted in today's San Francisco Chronicle as saying that:"A slight difference in Democrat or Republican turnout could easily alter the outcome in this race," he said. Non-partisan/other voters favor Garamendi by a strong 47% to 32%.

Debra Bowen leads the appointed incumbent Bruce McPherson by 40% to 34% in the race for Secretary of State according to this poll. There are 26% of the likely voters up fro grabs who are undecided. As the only woman nominated by either major party for California statewide office, Bowen should get a strong vote from women. She also has a loyal following amongst those concerned about the integrity of the election system and who want the best paper trail possible in light of highly publicized problems with electronic voting machines. She has been a leader in the State Senate on this, chairs that body's Election Committee and has authored or helped to pass much of the landmark legislation in this area in recent years.

McPherson is the appointed incumbent to the office, and while a Republican is not as extreme as McClintock. However, he appears to be facing the jinx that statewide appointed incumbents have, as none have won election to their office since some time before 1964. He also has failed to appear on a number of radio forums and public appearances with Bowen since she bested him at their debate before the San Francisco Chronicle and won that paper's endorsement to the surprise of many since McPherson comes from a newspaper family and has been in that business himself.

In the race for State Controller, Democrat John Chiang, who has served on the State Board of Equalization is leading Republican former legislator Tony Strickland by a margin of 38% to 31%, but there is a huge undecided vote. 31% of likely voters told Field that they had not made up their minds, the largest of any of these three races. There is a lot of independent expenditure money being spent by those supporting both candidates although not affiliated with them.

As far as the other races, the biggest surprise is in the race for Attorney General where Democrat Jerry Brown has the biggest lead of any statewide candidate. He leads Republican State Senator Chuck Poochigian by a margin of 56% to 31%. That's a 25% lead with only 13% undecided. It is larger than the margin that Dianne Feinstein leads in her U.S. Senate race (23 points) and Lockyer in his race for Treasurer (19 points) as they coast to victory against little known and badly underfunded candidates. Brown's support level has risen since the last Field Poll where he was at 45%. The attacks against him have not succeeded.

Republican Steve Poizner, running for State Commissioner of Insurance with self funding of over $11 million is the only truly bright spot for his party below the level of Governor. He is running against Democratic Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante, who is low or out of funds. He leads by 9 points, 46% to 36% with 17% undecided. It would take a massive Democratic get out the vote effort or independent expenditures on Bustamante's behalf for him to have a shot at winning.

The full Field Poll is now available online.

Posted on November 03, 2006

Comments

As a Democrat, I can't imagine voting for Bustamante-he proved his loyality is only to himself in the recall election and he's shown himself to be in the pockets of the insurance companies

Posted by: Theo at November 3, 2006 10:42 PM

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