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LATEST SURVEY UNDERSCORES IRRELEVANCY OF SURVEYS WHEN VOTERS SPEAK
By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento
The latest state survey from the Public Policy Institute of California is out, and it reveals deep dissatisfaction by Californians over the campaigns currently underway. Neither of the two candidates has addressed the number one issue on the minds of Californians – immigration.
And neither candidate will.
It’s still the case that the opinions of Californian’s don’t matter – only California voters matter. And the poll suggests we’ll see fewer of them this year than at any time in history. Only 19% of the electorate is watching “closely”, a figure that compares poorly with the 22% at a similar time in 2002 – the year of the previous low turnout.
It is likely that fewer than half the registered voters will determine outcomes this year. In close races that means the outcomes will be determined by the least educated, least interested of those that straggle to the polls. It’s why the $8 million PAC put together by the Tribes is so impressive: $8 million spent in a week could effect the decision of enough stragglers to determine a whole lot of elections!
Not Governor, I’m afraid. Phil Angelides, an intelligent and interesting candidate has not found pictures or sound that communicate his positives and is being tuned out. As their vote ceases to make a difference in the only race of consequence in the minds of people who vote for that reason, they drop out. That leaves hardened partisans on each side and a set of unmotivated partisans who might be guilt-tripped into voting by local effort.
Remember the old typing class whiz, “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their party”? Well, it’s true. A few votes on the ground could determine outcomes in more races than usual in this low interest, low turnout year – enough to affect the agenda over the next two years.
Because regardless of the opinion of “Californians”, in two weeks a government will be selected by “voters”. And if you don’t like their attitude or decisions, blame no one but yourself.
Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.
He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received adoctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.
Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.
Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.
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