Attention California Voters on Prop 90: New Poll Shows Oregon Voters Now Regret Similar Measure They Passed in 2004

High Level of Awareness
An overwhelming majority of voters in Oregon (83 percent) has heard about Measure 37. A solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they have heard a lot or a fair amount about the measure while only 16 percent say they have not heard anything about Measure 37 which was passed by voters in 2004.

Voters Have Deep Regrets about Measure 37

In 2004, Measure 37 passed with 61 percent of the vote in Oregon. Yet, support for the measure has dropped precipitously. In fact, Oregon voters now oppose Measure 37 and if the election were held today, Measure 37 would lose by a wide margin. Opponents of Measure 37 now outnumber supporters by a nearly 2-to-1 margin as nearly half of the Oregon electorate (48 percent) says they would vote no while only slightly more than a quarter (29 percent) would vote yes to support the measure.

Familiarity breeds contempt: Opposition against the measure is even stronger among voters who have heard more about the measure. Two-thirds (66 percent) of those who have heard a lot about Measure 37 would now vote no if it were on the ballot today, while only one out of four (26 percent)would vote yes to support the measure.

Voters Across the State Oppose Measure 37
When voters cast their ballots for Measure 37 in November 2004, all but one county in Oregon voted yes on the initiative, including the state’s more progressive counties such as Multnomah (home to Portland) and its surrounding suburbs. That is simply no longer the case. Currently, voters in every region of the state now strongly oppose Measure 37 and would reject it if the measure re-appeared on the ballot. Multnomah County (Portland) voters are most strongly against it (59 percent would vote no if the election where held today to only 18 percent yes), but voters in eastern Oregon also oppose it by double digits (46 percent to 32 percent).

The survey also found that opposition to Measure 37 also transcends political ideology. Today, a strong majority of liberals (67 percent to 14 percent) and moderates (50 percent to 31 percent) would oppose Measure 37 if it was once again on the ballot. Measure 37 also fails to gain much support among conservatives, who are now much more divided on how they would vote if the measure was on the ballot today (42 percent would vote yes while 31 percent would vote no with 24 percent unsure).

Voters Have an Unfavorable View of Measure 37
A plurality of those who have heard at least a little about Measure 37 have an unfavorable view of the measure (45 percent unfavorable to 27 percent favorable). Furthermore, 43 percent of Oregonians who have heard at least a little about Measure 37 think it has generally been a bad thing for Oregon, while 27 percent say it has been a good thing for the state.
• Voters who have heard a lot about the measure are far more likely to say that Measure
37 has been a bad thing (65 percent bad thing to 23 percent good thing).
• Nearly half of Oregonians (48 percent) agree that Measure 37 was a mistake. Furthermore, one in three (34 percent) strongly agree that it was a mistake.
• Among those who have heard a lot about the measure, the view of Measure 37 as a mistake is even more prominent with 62 percent agreeing that was a mistake while only
32 percent disagree. A strong majority (58 percent) of those who have heard a lot about the measure strongly agree that it was a mistake.

Oregonians believe Measure 37 has had troubling effects
When voters were asked if they agree or disagree with statements that have been made about Measure 37, overwhelming majorities agreed with statements highlighting the negative impacts of the measure.
• A strong majority of voters in Oregon (66 percent) agree that Measure 37 has caused a lot of chaos. Oregonians who have heard a lot about the measure are even more likely to agree that it has created chaos (88 percent agree to 20 percent disagree);
• An even greater number agree that it has caused a lot of uncertainty (72 percent agree to 21 percent disagree).
• Voters are worried about the fiscal impact that Measure 37 may have on taxpayers.
Three out of five (61 percent) voters think that it may cost taxpayers millions of dollars.
Those who have heard the most about the measure are even more likely to agree that
Measure 37 may end up costing millions (73 percent agree to 20 percent disagree).
• Oregon voters are also concerned that Measure 37 will lead to increased development.
• More than seven out of ten (71 percent) of voters and practically all of those who have heard the most about the measure (91 percent) worry that it will open the door to more development.
• Voters also believe that Measure 37 will allow development on previously protected land (61 percent of all voters and 75 percent of those who have heard a lot about the measure agree).

Current Impressions of Measure 37

Voters Do Not Like the Impact of Measure 37 Based on Actual Cases
After voters are read descriptions of specific cases under Measure 37, their opinion towards the measure grows even less favorable.
• Fifty-seven percent of voters in Oregon say they have a much less favorable view of
Measure 37 after learning that a mining company may be permitted to develop a mine on a previously protected national monument area.
• Likewise, half of Oregonians say they have a much less favorable opinion of Measure 37 after being read the description of the claim filed by the Wildish Company under
Measure 37 while a total of 71 percent of voters say it gives them at least a somewhat
less favorable view.
• Voters who have heard a lot about Measure 37 are even more likely to have a less favorable view of the measure after being read descriptions of specific cases.
• Forty-two percent of voters feel much less favorable and a total of 69 percent feel at much or somewhat less favorable towards Measure 37 after hearing that it would allow for a four story condominium to be built in a neighborhood of single family homes. Those who have heard a lot about Measure 37 feel even more unfavorable after hearing of this specific Measure 37 case with over three in four (76 percent) saying they have a less favorable view.
• Voters’ opinion of Measure 37 is similarly affected when they are told that the measure could allow for 300 houses to be developed on previously protected farmland. After hearing this specific case under Measure 37, 66 percent of Oregonians have a less favorable view of the measure. Of those most informed about Measure 37, 78 percent have a less favorable opinion (58 percent have a much less favorable opinion) of Measure 37.
• Oregon voters also react negatively after hearing that a specific case under Measure 37 would allow for an industrial gravel pit to be developed in a residential neighborhood. Nearly half of voters (48 percent) say this causes them to have a much less favorable opinion of Measure 37. Seventy-one percent of Oregonians and 68 percent of those who have heard a lot about Measure 37 feel less favorable towards the measure after hearing that it would allow for an industrial gravel pit in a residential area.

Specific Measure 37 Cases

In sum, this poll has found that Oregon voters have deep regrets over Measure 37 and if they could do it all over again, they would vote no and reject this initiative. This is particularly true among voters who are most informed about Measure 37 as they view it the most unfavorably.
Clearly, the message from this poll is that Oregon voters are telling voters in other states that have a takings initiative on the ballot to vote no and not make the same mistake they did so that they do not experience the problems Oregon is now experiencing as a result of Measure 37
.
Appendix A: Methodology
From October 12-16, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a statewide survey by telephone among 405 registered voters in Oregon who voted in the 2004 November general election that included Measure 37 on the ballot. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent.

© 2006 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. This poll was republished with the permission of the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and can be found at http://www.defendersactionfund.org/newsroom/oregonpoll.pdf