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Turnout of Voter Subgroups Can Have Dramatic Impact on Governor's Election: New Poll Shows Schwarzenegger Problems with Spanish Speaking Likely Voters

By Frank D. Russo

Virtually all polls, including the major ones released this week on the race for California governor by Field and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), contain an adjustment of the raw data to reflect who the pollsters believe are likely to show up at the polls and actually vote. However, turnout is not cast in stone and both campaigns will be trying to get segments of California they have identified as key supporters to the polls. Yesterday, we commented on some particulars of the PPIC poll about voter enthusiasm that may indicate a higher turnout of Latino voters than is historically common.

A new poll released today of Spanish speaking likely voters shows that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has higher disapproval ratings than President Bush, and is losing among this group to Phil Angelides by 64-21 margin. Latino voters have made up about 18% of the California electorate, and more than half of those are dominant Spanish-speakers.

These new results are consistent with national polls showing a dramatic erosion of support for Republicans in the Hispanic community, and show a real opportunity for Phil Angelides.

"Despite being an immigrant himself, Governor Schwarzenegger has completely lost the faith of Latino immigrant voters," said Steve Phillips, President of PowerPAC. "The depth of dislike for the governor in this increasingly influential community will not be easily reversed and spells trouble for the Republican Party in California for a long time to come."

"The immigration debate this year has turned Latinos across the nation against Republicans, which is bad news in itself for the Republican Party," said Joe Garcia, Director of NDN’s Hispanic Strategy Center. "But here in California, if there is a close election, this deep dislike of the current governor, could be the key to electing a new governor if the Democrats are able to tap into this disillusionment."

This poll, conducted by Bendixen & Associates on behalf of PowerPAC and the NDN Political Fund, was of 603 likely Hispanic voters in three counties in Southern California – Orange, San Bernardino and San Diego – that are more Republican than other parts of the state. These counties represent the largest potential for increasing Latino voter turnout in the state, according to PowerPAC. The poll has a margin of error of 4 points and was conducted between September 21 and 24. Bendixen is a national pollster whose clients include the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and the Pew Hispanic Center and a long list of organizations. They specialize in following Hispanic voters.

Some of the key findings include:

• Among this audience of Spanish speaking voters, Phil Angelides is leading Schwarzenegger 64% to 21%, despite more than half of these voters having no positive or negative opinion of Angelides (54% say he is unknown to them). This is a level higher than the recent Field Poll finding that Angelides is leading with 42% of all Latino voters. And it is despite the fact that the group studied by Bendixen is actually more Republican than the statewide Latino electorate (50% Democratic registration, 29% Republican, and 21% decline to state or other). Surprisingly, 43% of this group feel California is going in the right direction and 41% do not, within the margin of error of the poll but nevertheless indicating these are not voters disaffected from the state as a whole.

• Schwarzenegger is deeply unpopular in these communities, with 69% holding a negative view of him, a level higher than the 34% who hold such views of President Bush. Schwarzenegger is also seen as untrustworthy with 73% of these voters indicating they do not trust him to represent the interests of the Latino community.

• These voters are concerned about their growing inability to afford a middle-class life in California, listing high cost of living, lack of affordable housing, and high natural gas and electricity bills among their top concerns facing the state.

• The national debate over immigration is also deeply important to these voters, with nearly 60% saying growing anti-immigrant and anti-Latino sentiment in the country has affected them and their family. 70% of those polled indicate they they have followed the political debate about how to reform the immigration policy of the United States. By a margin of 89% to 5%, they believe that undocumented workers should be given an opportunity to earn legal status and citizenship rather than being deported.

• Fully 68% of these voters said the recent comments by Gov. Schwarzenegger, in which he referenced a Latina Assemblywoman as being “very hot” due to her “black blood mixed with Latino blood” were insensitive or racist, with only 26% agreeing the comments were “mostly harmless,” as was the primary reaction portrayed in the media. The question asked was: "How do you feel about the recent comments made by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in reference to a Latino Assemblywoman?"

The results of this poll are in accord with an earlier one of Latino voters undertaken by PowerPAC that we reported on in May. PowerPAC, along with other groups have been working to increase voter turnout in the Latino community and that of people of color in general. As reflected in the PPIC study, "The Exclusive Electorate," California's traditional nonvoters can have a dramatic impact if they vote. We will see what PowerPAC and the campaigns are able to do about this group they have identified.

Posted on September 29, 2006

Comments

I am a native born resident of Sacramento, California. I am against the Bush Regime and against Arnold S. because of their reactionary positions in regards to Latinos and immigrants in general. I will VOTE for Phil Angelides because he best represents Latino interests in the upcoming elections.

Posted by: Peter S. Lopez at September 30, 2006 11:22 AM

The term Latino, as you use it to describe potential voters, is flawed. Many of those folks are Mexican, not Latino. They are immigrants and more likely not eligible to vote largely because of their legal status. When former speaker of the Assembly Willie Brown stated many years ago that "Mexicans don't vote", he was widely criticized. When our current Governor stated recenty during a campaign stop "Mexicans like to stay Mexican", he was also criticized. However, Mayor Villaraigoza and Speaker Nunez did not make any public statements criticizing the Governor. Brown and Schwarzenegger may not be not politically correct, but politically realistic.

Posted by: Jorge Martinez at December 28, 2006 01:40 PM

Posted by: Jorge Martinez at December 28, 2006 01:41 PM

God bless California's governor. I live in West Virigia where we lead the nation in child abuse. How do I get my state to make hitting children illegal?

A teacher

Posted by: elizabeth anne moore at February 28, 2007 04:26 PM

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