No Doubt About it--Good Poll News for Schwarzenegger. Are There Any Rays of Hope for Angelides?

One can prognosticate as to whether the next 6 weeks will go better or worse for either candidate--but as I see it, Schwarzenegger will continue the pattern of this month and campaign for the bond measures during this time and ignore Angelides as much as possible. His campaign is going to minimize as much as possible any opportunity for unplanned things to occur. The debate will be one exception to this general rule, but what kind of play the Saturday night debate will get, and whether Angelides can really gain from it is dubious.

All that being said, if the election were held last week, the Governor would win by 44% to 34% over Angelides with another 7 percent going to other candidates and 15%, if they show up at the polls, breaking one way or another. If indeed 7% of the voters cast their ballots for other candidates, it is only going to take 47% or so to win the election.

Going through the poll as it was published by the Field Institute, one of the first things I was struck with is in Table 1. From June of 2005 to this late September poll, Schwarzenegger has been in a relatively narrow range and has gone from 42% of the vote to 44%. He reached a high of 46% in late May. He was at a low of 39% in February when he tied with Angelides. His vote is at exactly the same place as it was in April.

Angelides vote, on the other hand is at it's lowest ebb, 34%. He is down 4 or 5 points from where he was in February, April, or May.

Angelides can try to make hay over the fact that Schwarznegger has not been over 50% of the vote, and there are a much higher percentage of undecided Democrats or those voting for a minor party candidate for him to potentially pick up (23%) than there are for Schwarzenegger to get amongst Republicans and other candidates (10%). He'll have to strip some Democrats away from Schwarzenegger to succeed and has more of a target of opportunity here since only 4% of Republicans are supporting Angelides over Schwarzenegger, while 16% of Democrats are supporting Schwarzenegger. Democrats have the largest undecided percentage of undecideds in the race. Will some who are thinking of voting for third party candidates vote for Angelides if the race tightens or they become sensitized to the difference between Angelides and Schwarzenegger and the prospects of four more years?

Schwarzenegger holds a 41% to 37% lead over Angelides in the traditionally Democratic Los Angeles County. This is not good news. With the endorsement of popular LA Mayor Villaraigosa coming earlier in September, can this be turned around? It has to be for Angelides to have a chance. How much will Villaraigosa work to get Angelides the support he needs here? He said he would work his heart and soul out for Angelides. Will he try to deliver and can he be successful?

It is also not a good sign that Angelides is behind, although by 3 points, 37% to 40% in the coastal counties. He has to do much better and win these counties by a large margin. He is way behind in the inland counties by 55% to 25%.

Angelides has the support of Latinos and other "racial and ethnic voters" as the Field Survey calls this other non white category. But Latinos only break his way 42% to 30% with 20% undecided. He needs to do a lot better in these groups as well.

A full 51% of "Non-partisan/other party" voters back Schwarzenegger as opposed to only 23% for Angelides. If that trend holds up, I don't see how Angelides can win on the basis of Democrats coming home. Many more younger (under 30 years of age) voters are in the "decline-to-state" category. Can he boost this turnout beyond the normally low levels that are usually seen?

Since perception is often reality, it is significant that those who say they are voting for the Governor by a 3 to 1 margin believe he is going to win. Angelides supporters are split 42-43% on this question. I'd sure like to have some Angelides supporters tell me why they think he is going to win.

Although Angelides has picked up amongst the voters who are voting for him as opposed to voting against Schwarzenegger, the Governor has a much higher percentage who are voting for him as opposed to Angelides.

Last, but certainly not least, there is the voters' favorable/unfavorable ratings. The Governor has 49% of voters favorable vs. 41% unfavorable. Ratings under 50% are traditionally thought of as indicating an incumbent is in trouble. Schwarzenegger's numbers aren't that much different from the prior survey, but they are up a lot from the nadir of 38% in October of 2005, when the "special election" was at it's height. The favorables are actually a couple of points lower than the 51% approval of the prior survey, but within the margin of error and so probably statistically insignificant. The biggest change since the last survey is that the voters with no opinion increased from 5 to 10%. He has an overwhelming edge amongst Republicans and a sizeable lead amongst "non partisan/others" and loses here amongst Democrats 63 to 26%.

Angelides has slipped to a 35 % to 43% unfavorable over favorable rating--and that definitely has to change if he is to have a chance. It is difficult to overcome unfavorable ratings--and that makes Schwarzenegger's comeback from a year ago all the more surprising. This may be the Achilles heel (no Greek pun intended) in this race.

Polling should be available soon on the down ticket races. One thing is for sure--if Schwarzenegger maintains a big lead, we need to make sure Democrats get to the polls. California's voters are notorious ticket splitters and we've had divided "tickets" and state officers many times before. As the PPIC study "California's Exclusive Electorate" showed, turnout can be the key to many races.

That's what I see in this survey. I welcome your thoughts.