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California’s Nonvoters Could Radically Change Outcomes Across the Board, Study Released Today Shows

By Frank D. Russo
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a report today based on interviews with thousands of our state’s residents—voting and nonvoting adults—which shows that if nonvoters made their voices heard at the ballot box, political realities that are taken for given and policies that appear to be set in stone would change by 180 degrees. The Report is entitled “California’s Exclusive Electorate” and is authored by Mark Baldassare, the PPIC’s Director of Research.
Politically, California is often thought about as two different states. The literature and discourses routinely divide us into the dichotomies of Northern and Southern Californians (the old way of looking at California) and Red and Blue California--largely those who live inland and those on the coast—(the newer analysis).
The PPIC has divided us up by those who vote and those who do not. The results are eye-popping. On a deeper and more important level they point us to the disconnect between 1) those who are deciding our representation in state government and deciding the state and local propositions and 2) the state as a whole including many who pay taxes and have different perceptions and needs from our political system.
The 8 million Californians who are expected to vote in the November election are so different from their 12 million nonvoting counterparts (7 million of whom are eligible to vote and are citizens) that the following radically different outcomes would take place if all or some of them voted:
Bond issues such as the affordable housing bond (Prop 1 ) would easily pass. 80% of nonvoters would support it, but fewer (49% according to the PPIC, higher according to other polls) of likely voters favor this bond issue.
California would provide more services and pay higher taxes. Nonvoters prefer higher taxes with more services to lower taxes and fewer services 66% to 26%, but likely voters are in favor only 49 to 44%.
Even Proposition 13, limiting property taxes, might be changed—or at least a dialogue started. Nonvoters think this has been a bad policy by 47 to 29%, but likely voters think it has been good by 56 to 33%.
Odds on the Governor’s re-election would also change with nonvoters disapproving of him 61 to 21% as compared with voters approving 48 to 42%.
It would be easier to meet the two-thirds requirement for passing local special taxes including school construction bonds.
There are large racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic differences between voters and nonvoters that underlie much of the differences in opinions:
The majority of likely voters are age 45 or older (62%), have household incomes of $60,000 or more (56%), and have college degrees (53%). By contrast, the vast majority of nonvoters are younger than age 45 (76%), and only 18% have household incomes of $60,000 or more, and only 17% have college degrees.
Although no racial or ethnic group constitutes a majority of Californians, whites are 70% of likely voters, and Latinos, Blacks and Asians are underrepresented in the voting population.
Although one in three adults in California are foreign born, 90% of likely voters are native born.
A vast majority of likely voters (77%) are homeowners whereas 66% of nonvoters are renters.
This is a powerful collection of data and thought. It should be read and considered with Peter Schrag’s column in the Sacramento Bee from April, still available on line. Schrag’s column provides a summary of what is in his latest book, California: America’s High-Stakes Experiment, and asks questions as to how California can deal with many problems if the population voting on them is different from those who live here and may have other needs and concerns.
For progressives and Democrats, it also reflects the political reality that we will do a lot better if we can register and turnout as many of these traditional nonvoters as possible.
Comments
Frank,
Thanks for noting that the Prop. 1C housing and shelter bond enjoys stronger support among likely voters than the 49% cited in yesterday's PPIC report. In fact, the higher support was registered not by other public pollsters but by PPIC itself. PPIC's August survey, which used the exact ballot language to describe 1C, found 57% support for the measure among likely voters. The 49% figure cited in yesterday's report was from PPIC's May survey, which summarized the description of the measure because exact ballot language was not available then. The bottom line is that the most recent independent public polling shows Prop 1C with strong majority support in almost all regions of the state and among almost all demographic groups.
-- Sam Delson
Communications Director
Yes on Prop 1C
Posted by: Sam Delson at September 14, 2006 09:51 AM
As always, the division is between those who pay and those who don't, between those who have and those who don't, between those who can and those who can't.
So if you get rid of the illegals, who are included in your non-voting population, what then are the numbers?
So why are you "progressives" so committed to the proposition that nirvana can be obtained by soaking the rich? Haven't you yet learned that the rich own the top politicians of both major parties body and soul, that all you are really doing is soaking the productive working Americans, which both major parties now like to call the "middle class."
Why don't you start doing demographics on where the present tax burden lies heaviest?
Why don't you look into the APTTax (Automatic Payment [financial] Transaction Tax) which, by computer, collects government revenue from the flow of money and soaks rich and poor alike in proportion to the money they spend or manipulate, instead of from working people? Dummy up, the progressive income tax, which was supposed to be the instrument by which the people could break the stranglehold of the rich, had been turned against the people.
You Liberals are supposed to be "intellectuals" but really are dumb, dumb, dumb. And the idea of making America the land of milk and honey by importing ovewhelming masses of the poor and downtrodden of the world is just about the most insane notion you have ever developed.
Don't you know that the P&Ds breed faster than any society can absorb? Why during my lifetime the world's population has trebled, and now the depressed populations of Central America and Africa are boiling over into their affluent neighborhoods. Lemmings and locusts, James Thurber and The Holy Bible.
Dummy up, dummies.
Posted by: Lew Warden at September 14, 2006 10:42 AM
P.S.
And the idea of solving problems one by one by borrowing money, taken right out of Aaanold's play book, is also dumb, dumb, dumb. The Rich and Powerfull (R&Ps) love tax free bonds. Why invest your wealth in building new factories and other long term investments in America that will provide jobs for Americans, when you can get a guaranteed 6% tax free return by buying bonds? Do you think the R%Ps are stupid? Like you people who just say "Gimme the Money! Gimme the Money!" You and working Caliornians are the ones who will be taxed to repay these incredible borrowings. Or are you figuring on letting the state go bankrupt?
Great idea! Out of the ashes arises ?? What? What on earth do you imagine life would be like when California, America's largest and most secure life boat, becomes full to overflowing with the Poor and Downtrodden (R&Ds), the working population is taxed beyond endurance to support the burdens of government and debt, and the people who have invested their life's savings in the American Dream, their own homes find their homes so burdened with tax and personal debt as to be unmarketable?
How will we weather the storm?? I don't have the least idea. Do you? Have you even thought about it? Why not? Or do you really care? Duh! Gimme the Money! Gimme the Money!
Join The Howard Beale Memorial Society. Dummy up! Get Mad! Fight Back!
Posted by: Lew Warden at September 14, 2006 11:10 AM
Good gosh, your own satistics show how assimilation of others isn't working, especially if your numbers include illegal aliens. Why?
With no pride in earning your way and your keep, in not garnering property you can call your own, in not feeling as part of our society via a common language and adhereance to our common laws, that all begats apathy and a search only for the next easy handout via "sensitive" types who only further exaserbate the problem.
Posted by: Sid at September 17, 2006 02:48 PM
It does not surprise me that a couple of people used this article to issue an anti immigrant rant. However, immigration is part of the story.
When measuring who votes among Latinos, for example, a very large group can not vote. it is not only the undocumented. It is also the many permanent resident aliens. However, they have children. And, the children born in the U.S. are citizens. So, in 18 years, they will be able to vote. Among the Latino population as a whole, about half are under 18 and can not vote. Among the adult Latino population about half can not vote because they are not (yet) citizens. This reduceds the Latino vote from about 34% of adults to 14 % of voters. Face it. California is changing. Our electoral system lags behind the demographic changes. this produces extra power for the older- Anglo population. This population is declining, but hangs on to political power.
Posted by: Duane Campbell at September 18, 2006 11:08 AM
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