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Spin on California Minimum Wage Compromise Will Be Interesting This Morning

By Frank D. Russo
Later on this morning the participants in the press conference announcing the agreement to raise California’s state minimum wage for the first time since 2002 will probably be in a celebratory mood. They certainly should be happy that finally the poorest workers, many of whom, despite working a full time job, still have to rely upon public assistance to make ends meet, will be lifted up from their current status.
But if you look at the history of the minimum wage in recent years in this state, the level it is being pegged at compared with the cost of living in California, the future implications of failing to index the minimum wage for the effects of inflation, and the polls that show widespread support for even greater increases so that the minimum wage is truly “adequate” as required by current law (Labor Code 1178), there is much to be desired.
So, let’s be happy that something is being done and that another bill will not be vetoed by our Governor. But let’s be sober and contemplate what the public policy in AB 1185 as it will be signed really means.
First of all, there has been no raise in the rate since 2002—a full four years, during which inflation has reduced the ability of those who have to survive on the minimum wage to purchase the basic necessities of life. Because of inflation, the minimum wage as it stands now is 11.5% lower than it was in 2002. Rather than remaining for these intervening years at $6.75 per hour, it would be $7.63 per hour currently if it had been indexed to buy the same bundle of goods and services—in other words to stay even with the cost of living. All this data comes from the California Budget Project report on this subject.
The effect of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s vetoes two years running is to cost these workers at least $2 billion dollars a year—or to save some of his supporters including the titans of industry that amount. Take your pick.
If you compare it to the highpoint of 1968, it is a full 33% lower in its purchasing power than it was 38 years ago. This is the opposite of progress, it is retrogression.
Second, it is not indexed, so it will degrade again in future years unless there is an increase, In other words, there is really not a floor here that is stable to walk upon. It may very well become another political football, and if it does, the working poor will suffer until another bill is passed. As the old saying goes, “Justice delayed is justice denied.”
Third, polls and surveys show that Californians support an even greater increase in the minimum wage. This was not a great act of political courage for Arnold Schwarzenegger to support this increase. It was driven by the polls and political imperatives. That is why, when faced with a legislature that was willing to do battle with him and fight for the principles involved, he desperately wanted to get a deal or some other way of getting this off the table. A survey taken by respected pollster David Binder in 2005 showed 73% of California voters approved a rate then of $7.57 per hour with indexing. This included 80% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 62% of Republicans. By a margin of 63-28% these voters approved $8.75 per hour with indexing. These are no small numbers.
Schwarzenegger tried an end run around the legislature to reconstitute the moribund Industrial Welfare Commission (IWC), which had failed during his years as Governor to take action, as required by law (Labor Code 1178 again, but also Article XIV, Section 1 of the California Constitution). In his letter to them to take action, he stated that the minimum wage was insufficient, but they were not able to agree upon an amount on their own. He had no choice other than to negotiate with the legislature, and the leaders of both houses held out for the best deal they could get. If we get a Democratic governor elected, we will be able to get indexing next year signed into law.
A final cautionary note. Many other states have raised their minimum wages this year or in recent years. Despite descriptions in press accounts that today’s deal makes us the “highest paying state” in the nation, this is not factually true. Washington state already has a rate of $7.63 per hour that is indexed. Assuming normal inflation, it will be well over $8 per hour in 2008. Oregon is already at $7.50 per hour, Connecticut at $7.40 per hour and so forth and so on. In Massachusetts, the legislature overrode the veto of their Republican Governor, Mitt Romney, and passed an increase from $6.75 per hour to $7.50 and then $8 per hour in 2008.
Making people wait for money they need to live on is not a proud record to run on. Republican legislators who have opposed previous bills and will vote against this one, and our Governor, who has vetoed two bills, should not let their chests puff out too much on this one. It is how the poor and the weak are treated by a society that it should be measured by, at least in my book.
If Schwarzenegger's campaign theme is "Protecting the California Dream," at least he ought to be able to go "backwards" to the standard in 1968 when Pat Brown handed the reins of government over to Ronald Reagan.
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