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New Poll Shows Angelides Ahead of Schwarzenegger 46%-44%--Why Arnold’s Camp Has Much to Fear

By Frank D. Russo
The poll just released today by Rasmussen Reports, a highly respected pollster, has Phil Angelides with a statistically insignificant 46 to 44% lead in the race for Governor of California.
In the dog days of summer, and even around election time, polls have a habit of jumping around. They are only snapshots of a sampling of voters. They are often hyped by one side or another in a race and bandied about by the press as if they are rock solid evidence of the direction of the campaigns and predictive of the ultimate result. This far out they are interesting, but almost never dispositive.
Notwithstanding all of this, the Rasmussen poll should give a lot of pause to the Schwarzenegger campaign for the following reasons:
First: Rasmussen has an excellent track record for accuracy. Matthew Dowd, Schwarzenegger’s chief campaign strategist (who plotted strategy for Bush and Cheney in 2004) knows this. He said in 2004 that Rasmussen’s “polling data was dead on this election. Both nationally and at the state level, his numbers were hard to beat." Rasmussen was called the most accurate pollster for the 2004 election when he correctly projected - within tenths of a point - the actual vote totals received by both Bush and John Kerry. This is not some wild outlier poll.
Second: Schwarzenegger is below 50%. Incumbents are traditionally considered to be in trouble when they are below that mark.
Third: Arnold’s campaign has spent a fair amount of money on ads, somewhat unusual for this early in a race, and Angelides has not. Despite all the ads, the quotes of Steve Westly used, the glow of the budget, the glow of the bonds being passed by the Legislature, the bruising Democratic primary, and all that team Arnold has been able to do to position him favorably and bash Phil Angelides, the Governator does not have a lead.
Fourth: California remains a Democratic state and the state’s independent voters lean Democratic. President Bush is disapproved “strongly” by a full 50% of California voters, according to this poll. The fact is that Arnold made a special trip to Ohio in the last days of the 2004 election to help Bush get elected. All the pictures of Schwarzenegger and Bush are yet to be released in ads and embedded in the minds of the voters. After the poll, he was caught sneaking into the White House and trying to keep this Bush contact hidden from public view, for good reason.
Fifth: This poll was taken before the debacle of the state’s prison system worsened, and I doubt that Arnold’s handling of this matter has improved his standings with the voting public.
I can’t see the upside potential for Arnold. Angelides seems better positioned over the next three months plus. But I won’t predict a winner. There’s a reason we have elections and this one is not over.
Comments
Arnold is President George W. Bush. He used the sacred office of the Governor of California to campaign for Bush in Ohio. The margin of victory for Bush can be directly tied to Arnold's campaigning. If it wasn't for Arnold, Bush would have been defeated. Everything that vexes California, our poor economy, international destabilization, racial tensions, can be laid at Arnold's feet. It's time he took responsiblity for the damage he has caused.
Posted by: Pablo at July 14, 2006 02:56 PM
Well, as it happens, this poll -- a totally automated poll done in one night -- is an "outlier."
Not only is it very much contradicted by the San Jose State public poll, it is thoroughly contradicted by private polls conducted for some of the most powerful public employee unions in the state.
That is why a rescue effort is about to be mounted for Phil Angelides.
Posted by: Bill Bradley at July 14, 2006 06:44 PM
Well, Bill, as I said--these polls bounce around. There is a range of opinion. Many of these polls are automated, and there's a whole discussion about whether they can control for the percent of hangups and other differences. Even phone polls, which most other polls are these days, have problems, and there has been a discussion of whether they are missing out on folks who have cell phones. In the olden days, there used to be door to door polls.
That all being said, Rasmussen has gotten some kudos nationally. This particular poll had a decent sampling of 500 Californians. It also can be looked at longitudinally with past polls they have done.
If the rescue effort you are talking about involves the rapid response team, Maviglio and Salazar that is only the beginning for Phil. That and other things I see in the campaign are only going to help him.
This is a fuild situation, which should give both of us plenty to write about on the horse race. I hope, as George Skelton recently commented on in the LA Times, that there is a big discussion of the important issues for the future of our state. I want to cover that as much as possible, though the polls are interesting and we have this fascination with them.
Posted by: Frank D. Russo at July 15, 2006 07:51 AM
Arnold really seems to have turned the economy around. Over 600,000 new jobs created! This democrat will be voting for Arnold in November.
Posted by: John at July 17, 2006 12:03 AM
Frank, I hope you are right but I think it's way too early to tell. There have not been any situations where they've been in public conversation or dabate together since Phil won (of which I'm aware). Do you know of anything soon that we can look forward to?
I'm not sure why John (above) believes Arnold has done anything that has turned the economy around for the average person but clearly there are some Democrats who do.
Posted by: J.E. Schwartz at July 17, 2006 01:55 PM
The "bashing" will begin after Labor Day. Both sides have enough funds & funding potential to work the airwaves.
So, who will win? I predict our "terminator" for no other reason than what we have seen in CA. The CA Democratic party still believe that whomever carries the biggest sword wins. How small and self-serving.
Posted by: Cathe at July 17, 2006 02:21 PM
Pablo:
What ARE you talking about? Just about everything you said is exactly the opposite of the truth.
"If it wasn't for Arnold, Bush would have been defeated? I can't stand Bush; but, Kerry would have been a nightmare. Good for Arnold if that is the case.
"Our poor economy"? Where are you? The economy is generally flying high. THANKS to Arnold for getting the Democratic Trial Lawyers off the public dole called Worker's Compensation. He has made the state a better place for "workers" to find jobs and earn a living. He stopped the hemoraghing of jobs from this state.
Having said all that I am thoroughly disgusted with the Governor. He WAS willing to tell the truth and fight for right. Now that he messed that up he is willing to grovel for votes no matter the principles. Unfortunately, once again the alternative, Phil Angelides, is a worse, he gets my vote like it or not.
Too bad the majority can't vote for "none of the above" and force new elections with new players when nobody decent is running.
Max Wagoner
Posted by: Max Wagoner at July 17, 2006 02:53 PM
To JE Schwartz: There is some haggling going on about the number of debates and the like, some of it in public. Non dates have been set yet and I haven't seen anything about any agreements or narrowing of positions. Angelides wants to have a number of debates and Arnold hasn't said anything lately about it--unless someone else knows.
Arnold has had only one debate since the recall election was called and he first ran for governor--and that was a free for all with a number of candidates. He refused to appear on the same stage with anyone taking an opposite position from him in the special election last year. Clearly he doesn't want direct debates and will try for as few as possible--maybe only one. What else can I say.
Usually these races don't start up until after Labor Day. So I get the feeling we ain't seen anything yet.
Posted by: Frank D. Russo at July 17, 2006 03:13 PM
I have read Dan Walters articles for a number of years, and I trust his opionion on many issues. Mrs. Walters did a scupture of the late B.T. Collins, whom was my mentor, and gave me the opp. to live the american dream. His scupture rest in my living room, and it reminds me of this crazy political world. I guess I am what someone would term old school.
Mr. Dan Walters couldn't have said it better when he said, " Governers, can't goveren", something to that.
This is why all must continue to support this Gov., we will atlest have a chance to change a little. He needs more than two years to change California. So, with that said, and the believe in Dan's article, i would say, stay with ARNOLD, FOR FOUR(4) MORE YEARS OR AS I WOULD SAY " QUATRO (4) ANOS MAS".
WE HAVE ALL GOT TO START WORKING TOGEATER TO GET ANTHING DONE, WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO START FROM SQ. ONE AGAIN? WE JUST DID IT, NOW PEPLE ELECTED HIM, SO SHOW YOUR DAMN SUPPORT.
I am truly tired of all the fighting, just serve the people, they look to our leaders, for leadership, sometimes, i think its gone. Bye, mr.jrb@frontietnet.net
THE PEOPLE OF CALIFORNIA WILL VOTE THIS GOVERNOR FOR A SECOND TERM.
1) He took over the State when it was a total mess, remember?
2) He has only been in office a mear two 1/2 years, I think we as good citizens support our gov, don't you.
He needs four more years in office to even begin to make the chances need, ie. Boating & Waterways, Parks & Rec., Fish & Game, who know where else. Question to ask is, "Do you all have water programs of any kind? we will find out obout the duplication of services. Government in many ways for a number of department seems to have turned into a Intitlement departments, with nothing to do but protect their own jobs.
You want more and More of this, than go ahead a elect the other person. I know nothing about either, but I will continue to support the present Governor because as time goes on he will educate himself and with the help of others that have lived the american dream,
this Gov. will learn and do the right thing.
3) He needs to make changes of State Government, the day after his victory. Prior to the self centered bureaucrats have a chance to make their moves, as can be explained if someone wants to know.
He is a strong leader, and his wife did a scupture of the late B.T. Collins whom was a good person and was one of the old school political guys when people were honest, which isn't the case theses days.
Posted by: John R. Banuelos at July 18, 2006 11:35 AM
I have read Dan Walters articles for a number of years, and I trust his opionion on many issues. Mrs. Walters did a scupture of the late B.T. Collins, whom was my mentor, and gave me the opp. to live the american dream. His scupture rest in my living room, and it reminds me of this crazy political world. I guess I am what someone would term old school.
Mr. Dan Walters couldn't have said it better when he said, " Governers, can't goveren", something to that.
This is why all must continue to support this Gov., we will atlest have a chance to change a little. He needs more than two years to change California. So, with that said, and the believe in Dan's article, i would say, stay with ARNOLD, FOR FOUR(4) MORE YEARS OR AS I WOULD SAY " QUATRO (4) ANOS MAS".
WE HAVE ALL GOT TO START WORKING TOGEATER TO GET ANTHING DONE, WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO START FROM SQ. ONE AGAIN? WE JUST DID IT, NOW PEPLE ELECTED HIM, SO SHOW YOUR DAMN SUPPORT.
I am truly tired of all the fighting, just serve the people, they look to our leaders, for leadership, sometimes, i think its gone. Bye, mr.jrb@frontietnet.net
THE PEOPLE OF CALIFORNIA WILL VOTE THIS GOVERNOR FOR A SECOND TERM.
1) He took over the State when it was a total mess, remember?
2) He has only been in office a mear two 1/2 years, I think we as good citizens support our gov, don't you.
He needs four more years in office to even begin to make the chances need, ie. Boating & Waterways, Parks & Rec., Fish & Game, who know where else. Question to ask is, "Do you all have water programs of any kind? we will find out obout the duplication of services. Government in many ways for a number of department seems to have turned into a Intitlement departments, with nothing to do but protect their own jobs.
You want more and More of this, than go ahead a elect the other person. I know nothing about either, but I will continue to support the present Governor because as time goes on he will educate himself and with the help of others that have lived the american dream,
this Gov. will learn and do the right thing.
3) He needs to make changes of State Government, the day after his victory. Prior to the self centered bureaucrats have a chance to make their moves, as can be explained if someone wants to know.
He is a strong leader, and his wife did a scupture of the late B.T. Collins whom was a good person and was one of the old school political guys when people were honest, which isn't the case theses days.
Posted by: John R. Banuelos at July 18, 2006 11:37 AM
Dear Govener
When will the state stop charging sales tax on the groceries we buy at the grcery store?
Prices are high enough without sales added on.
To many people cant aford buy groceries and pay Medical bills. This would help people on fixed incomes and poor people would not use food stampes so much.
End of statement: John F. Michler
Posted by: John F. Michler at November 4, 2006 12:24 AM
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