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New poll results may – or may not – presage Angelides defeat

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By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

The latest Field Poll is out and the results are good news for Schwarzenegger fundraisers. The Governor leads his challenger. That fact will be spun by the Governor’s media handlers into a spate of November victory stories. After all, as Nelson Polsby used to say, “the field of history is littered with the bodies of frontrunners who went on to victory”.

However, a glance at the survey’s internals show that this may not be the case. Schwarzenegger has a winning profile among Republican voters, winning 85%. This is what a winning Republican must have. Angelides, by contrast, must win 80% of the Democrats and a solid majority of the DTS [decline to state] registrants to accompany the 15% of the Republicans who don’t vote for their party’s ticket. He’s currently at 63% of the Dems and even with the DTS registrants.

After a difficult primary, it’s what you might expect. You would also expect that he’d win back the Democrats who are ‘hanging back’ at the moment. That would make the election close enough that the undecided decline-to-state voters, most of them likely to be women without much interest or involvement in state issues, would determine the next governor.

The poll claims to be a sample of “likely November voters” – but it doesn’t tell us how it went about determining they were ‘likely’. Some surveys include those who self-select. That is, they include voters who indicate a high level of interest or simply say they intend to vote. Other surveys and most political campaigns rely on the voting history of a person to determine whether their attitudes should be included or not.

The age breakout in this poll shows how important is the sample selection. Support for Schwarzenegger varies directly with age. Angelides does well with voters under 45. In low turnout elections like the June primary – and like the November general is likely to be – younger voters drop out of the electorate first. This wouldn’t matter if the survey had made an adjustment, dropping infrequent voting young people from the sample. If that is the case, then Angelides is indeed very much in the race with a far larger undecided vote in his areas of strength (LA, Bay Area) than Schwarzenegger.

If that adjustment in selection of the sample has not been made, however, then Angelides is being artificially propped up by counting the attitudes of voters under 40 who won’t appear at the polls.

Bill Cavala was, until recently, Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.

He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received adoctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on July 25, 2006

Comments

Hello! If you look into the fine print of the measures on California's November ballot, you will read that "President Bush has given Governor Schwarzeneggar the authority to acquire (STEAL) $200 billion in realestate to redevelop California." I went to www.calvoter.org and www.followthemoney.org and found that land developers gave them millions in campaign contributions and now it is payback time for the good ole boys club. The city, county and state governments are stealing houses and leaving families homeless and holding the mortgage and responsible for taxes and insurances until they develop the land and turn around and sell it. This leaves families with no choice other than to file bankruptcy. Others have been lucky enough to get less than 25% on the condition of signing a gag order so as to not inform the public. If they do, they are sued and they have to pay the less than 25% back to the government. There are a few who have the financial mobility to finance a lawsuit to receive much more but those are in the 2%.

In June of this year I along with 33,000 others in Sonoma County, California were given notice of "rezoning which would effect the future use of our property." All the rural areas they have rezoned make excellent areas of new homes and commercial enterprises as they are along country highways or near Highway 101 where development is spreading. On July 18th at 6 PM at the Sonoma County General Plan meeting at the Wells Fargo Center of the Arts in Santa Rosa, I and over 500 people who attended were told to "donate our homes or face a costly legal battle that we will lose for sure." What, are judges bought off too??? The government has a new tool, they rezone you to "possible endangered species" of plants and animals and bugs and amphibians. I got the "tiger salamander" which is not present on my dry sunny piece of property. They also say I am in a "biotic habitat" which means anyone living within 20 feet of a rainwater ditch, weep, creek, spring, river, etc. I live across the street from a seasonal rainwater ditch that is on county property. "Riparian corridor" is where wild life walks through. "Open space" is supposed to be a nature preserve, but somehow in just a few years it makes its way into the hands of the developers here. They have no scientific research to back their slander. I found out through the US Fish and Wildlife that they "did not find enough scientific data to conclude that the tiger salamander was facing extinction in Sonoma County." Rather they "found the local government is economically disadvantaging it's citizens as a result of this." As a result, Sonoma County created it's own environmental agency. All the rezoned land is along country highways which would make excellent bedroom communities and commercial space. The Sonoma County Planning Commission (with orders from the governor) do not want to let us have a chance at making any money from our home.

Down the road from me an organic apple farmer owned 20 acres with a house and barns. The city of Cotati, CA and Sonoma County told him he had the tiger salamander and condemned his business/livelihood and his house. A planning commissioner gave him a little over $150,000 for his condemned land. She through her connections to *land developers, local politicians, and her very own environmental impact reporting company, got it rezoned, subdivided and sold in pieces for millions. She lives in a 2+ million dollar older house in a grand neighborhood in Santa Rosa, that a contractor remodeled and had to take her to court to get paid for his work. She is also sporting around in a new German convertible sports car. The former owner was financially devastated. Now Lowe's, a home improvement store is sitting on the organic apple orchard and new townhouses. There is a strip mall about to go in there and a business park. So much for protecting the open space and alleged endangered tiger salamanders on his property! Now the salamander the planning commission says is "possibly on my property" and I have to pay an approved agency (one of the planning commissioners) $20,000 to have it removed. Or pay a fine when I need to do minor repairs to my home like on my well or if someone runs into my fence. I call this government racketeering at it's finest, some lie and call it preserving "open space."

Hitler took property to fund his ethnocentric war in WWII. It is eery how history has a way of repeating itself. Please, with your power in the government and your voice in the media, speak out with righteous indignation and stomp out crime in our government and help wake up uneducated American voters to vote to reinstate our property rights as stated in the Fifth Amendment of The Constitution of the United States of America as receiving "just compensation for public use" as well as private use too. Let us restore our civil and property rights that the Patriot Act and the Supreme Court ruling of Kelo vs. New London stole from us. Can you help us here? I have called attorneys who have told me that Sonoma County will win and I will have to walk away from my property because the judges and jurors are crooked here. What can we do? I look forward to a response at your earliest convenience. Thank you for your time!

Sincerely,

Rachele Ketchem
4900 Gravenstein South
Sebastopol, CA 95472-6044
707-824-1022
707-477-4198


If you don't believe me about the Sonoma County, CA Planning Commission, ask Jess Jackson of Kendall Jackson Winery who was told, not asked to "donate 1100 prime growing acres."

Did you know about the following greed and corruption? I guess since he did it the rest of the nation can too?

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2005/11/05/bush-condemned-property-via-eminent-domain-to-build-rangers-stadium/

Posted by: Rachele at November 7, 2006 02:50 PM

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