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June Primary Will Decide Environmental Balance in Legislature

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By Susan Smartt
Executive Director of the California League of Conservation Voters

Most voters do not realize the importance of voting in the election that is now just two weeks away. The crucial tipping point for electing pro-environment candidates is in the election on June 6th. Because virtually all of California’s legislative districts favor one party or the other, the key races will be decided during the primaries. Most of the forty open seats in the State Senate and Assembly will not change party hands; for that reason, the California League of Conservation Voters (CLCV) is helping the best environmental leaders win in June. See the chart below: Best- and worst-case scenarios.

Term limits guarantee the California Legislature will look very different after the 2006 elections; a full one-third of the seats in the Assembly and State Senate are open this year.

Our success in electing pro-environmental candidates in 2006 is likely to determine California's environmental health for years to come, because in the next few years, the legislature will make critical decisions regarding global warming, coastal protection, affordable housing, development, wildlife management, and energy resources. To ensure that California remains an environmental leader, we must maximize our electoral gains in 2006.

The long list of environmental champions who have been “termed out” of the legislature, taking their legislative acumen with them, will get longer. The result is that legions of entrenched lobbyists for the state’s biggest polluters retain the majority of experience and institutional knowledge in Sacramento. CLCV is helping offset that trend by supporting candidates who will dedicate themselves to defending all Californians’ resources and well-being.

In the Legislature, the reality today is that only the Senate has a working environmental majority. In the Assembly, just enough Democrats join Republicans to block the most important environmental legislation. The environmental community relied on the Senate to stop bad bills in 2005 and had to fight hard in the Assembly to get the 41 votes needed to send good bills to the Governor’s desk. Frankly, not many got there.

The 2006 election brings the daunting prospect of losing the reliable environmental majority in Senate. There is an opportunity to gain a modest number of reliable environmental votes in the Assembly, though anti-environmental Democrats may still hold enough seats to block pro-environmental legislation.

These scenarios don’t necessarily mean that the prospects for important environmental bills are bleak. They do mean that it’s likely we’ll have to battle with polluters for key votes from the most fickle lawmakers in both houses.

CLCV plays a key role in electing environmental leaders by interviewing and endorsing the best candidates statewide. We invite every viable candidate for every open seat to participate in our endorsement process, regardless of party, by sending them questionnaires.

Unfortunately, only one out of 37 Republican candidates running for 13 open safe Republican seats elected to participate by responding. Disturbingly, this seems to indicate that Republicans in the Legislature, who are averaging less than 5% support on key environmental votes, will not appreciably improve in 2006.

On the Democratic side, we face the possible loss of the working environmental majority in the Senate and continued stalemate in the Assembly. Based on our analysis of who is running for which seat, the following scenarios are likely:

Senate

Current reliable pro-environmental Senate votes: 20
Number needed to pass or defeat legislation: 21
Potential losses of reliable Senate votes: 7
Potential gains over existing poor environmental votes: 0
Best case outcome—Total environmental votes: 18
Worst case outcome—Total environmental votes: 13

Assembly

Current reliable pro-environmental Assembly votes: 27
Number needed to pass or defeat legislation: 41
Potential losses of reliable Assembly votes: 3
Potential gains over existing poor environmental votes: 10
Best case outcome—Total environmental votes: 38
Worst case outcome—Total environmental votes: 28

The California League of Conservation Voters is exerting a full court press to support California’s future environmental leaders:

• We have gotten out in front and made early endorsements for great candidates in the most important races.
• We are sending resources and staff to key campaigns.
• We are spreading the message to CLCV members and other Californians statewide.

We can only maximize our gains and win these tough primary election contests if you and everyone you know vote on June 6th for CLCV’s endorsed candidates. Your votes, your calls and letters, and your support for CLCV are critical in preserving democracy for the people and our environment for generations to come.

Posted on May 23, 2006

Comments

Wow, thanks for the detailed analysis.

Posted by: Ethan Rom at May 25, 2006 04:35 PM

There is also a good environmental vote in the Governor's race. Mike Strimling is currently
involved in litigation as an attorney against toxic polluters. As a matter of fact, Mike Strimling was in Court twice this week in cases against Chevron and General Chemical Corporations for their toxic spills in Richmond, California. Mike's Sierra Club
card says that he has been a member since 1989, but he was a member before that (in 1986-88 he was in the Peace Corps). He did not just become an
"environmentalist" to be elected. Mike Strimling has been a consistent yearly contributor and member of Earthjustice, the League of Conservation Voters, NRDC, The Nature Conservancy, EPIC, Greenpeace, The California State Park Foundation, National Wildlife Federation, American Farmlands Trust, Defenders of Wildlife, World Wildlife Federation, TURN and other
similar groups for all of his adult life.

In fact, Mike Strimling was an intern at Natural Resources Defense Counsel during law school 25 years ago, analyzing and writing a report that was used
to show the ridiculous economics of nuclear plants in the WPSS system. Three years later those nuclear plants were abandoned because of those economics (there still is no solution for nuclear waste, and it looks like
we are going to soon rediscover that the cost of building a "safe" nuclear plant is much higher than estimated or simply impossible). Mike has litigated cases based on the California Environmental Quality Act. He worked successfully to save virgin rainforest timber from a Japanese lumbering concession
while a legal advisor to the Solomon Islands in the US Peace Corps.

Mike Strimling has a strong environmental plank in his platform. He has a zero tolerance view for cutting the small amount of remaining old growth, or for pollution of water sources. He is against dams on wild rivers. Further, Mike's proposal to tax corporations on the true value of their property will help control urban sprawl. Many properties in existing cities and suburbs are allowed to sit vacant or not used for housing,
because corporations have such a low property tax burden on old properties that they do not sell for uses such as needed housing. Because of this, new
developers go after prime open space land for suburban sprawl.

We do not emphasize the environmental angle of this campaign because all of the Democrats are talking like environmentalists - that is not our strong
difference with them. Arnold also talks a good line but his score from the California League of Conservation Voters was 58%, whereas most
Democrats easily did better. We would be at or near 100% on the League's positions. We had some of the same doubts that Westly has expressed about Angelides' high level of dependence on developer contributors. That was one reason Mike got in this race, to be a true environmentalist, but we'd like to take them both at their word. In any event, you'll know that with Mike
Strimling, you have such a true environmental activist.

On the issue of energy and fuels, there are some overarching policies in America and California which prevent real change on use of fossil fuel. Although California has strict emissions standards, Californians have been resistant to measures that will cut down on use of fossil fuel. In particular, California's gas tax, at 18 cents, is one of the lower taxes in the nation - Wisconsin charges 29.1 cents, Rhode Island 30 cents, Montana 27 cents. Roughly two-thirds of States are over 20 cents a gallon.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxFacts/TFDB/TFTemplate.cfm?Docid=434&Topic2id=90

The federal tax is also only 18 cents. There was a large hue and cry when Clinton and Gore wanted to raise that by 4 cents. Of course, when Mike was campaigning for Paul Simon, in 1988, many were predicting we would be in exactly this situation today (of out-of-control energy costs and dependence on foreign sources) and calling then for a 50 cent or 1 dollar increase in the gas tax to deal with the deficit. Of course, Japan and European countries have long been faced with the national security dilemna of having little or no fossil fuels of their own, and their taxes have generally been on the order of $3 or $4 per gallon for decades. This encourages fuel economy, development of alternatives (Germany is leaping ahead in solar panels) and the use and construction of transit and rail service. America passed the point of having its own energy resources in approximately 1970, but its tax structure has never caught up with that fact. Our taxes still reflect an overall philosophy of easy and cheap and plentiful oil, which also raises our spoiling the atmosphere with fossil fuels. Ergo, global warming. Of course, we pay (in our trillions of dollars in the defense budget, much higher per capita than other countries) to preserve the illusion of cheap oil. When we add the defense budget into the cost of gasoline, we arguably pay more than Europeans. If we taxed use of petroleum, we could reduce our dependence on it, reduce our defense budget and need for our young men and women to be killed, wounded or traumatized to defend our oil sources, reduce our emissions and the danger of global warming. Biodiesel and other fuels and alternatives will also be produced and distributed more widely as and when it is financially feasible. Mike Strimling would propose that this State immediately cut its sales tax in half or less (which would also make our merchants more competitive with the Internet and low sales tax states such as Oregon), and make up for that revenue in a tax-neutral way by a general increase in the tax per gallon on oil. That would not cost the average taxpayer anything (since sales tax would be reduced) but penalize those who consume too much oil. The change could be phased in over 2 or 3 years, to give people a chance to change their habits and machinery. It is now painful to propose any tax on gasoline, and perhaps that is going to have to wait until prices fall a bit, but we can structure a tax that people see is revenue neutral.

Posted by: Strimling2006 at May 29, 2006 11:43 AM

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