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Democratic Primary Fight Not Likely to Affect Race Against Schwarzenegger
By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento
Although he takes pride in his reputation as the most jaded cynic in the California Press Corps, veteran opinion writer Dan Walters will desert that role on those occasions when he can provide aid and comfort to conservative Republicans and their contributors. So in yesterday’s Bee, Angelides-Westly Contest Looks More Like a Crawl Than a Race, he characterizes the contest between Angelides and Westly as one between a “rip-and-run pro-tax developer” and a “two-faced poseur” (as opposed to a sincere poseur?) and notes that “Schwarznenegger’s campaign will be ready to spend tens of millions of dollars more to reinforce those images.”
Are the impressions left by the two Democrats as indelible as Walters would have us believe he believes? (cf. poseur). I think not. Campaigns are not viewed by voters as a movie or a novel. Voters are busy with more important things, and at best catch an occasional glimpse of the hoopla and circus. Sometime late the week following the next those voters who will provide the decisive total to one or another of the candidates will have gleaned enough information to make his or her choice. Voters in this category will be the strongest partisans in both major parties. Their nominees can count on their votes in November.
Those who care less but who still participate as voters in November are not paying attention now at all. Why should they? They aren’t going to vote in June. They’ll pay attention in late October.
This means that despite the “tens of millions of dollars” Schwarzenegger’s campaign is likely to spend on dirt (according to Walters), it will appear as a de novo attack to swing voters. It will also be discounted as what you’d expect from an opponent in a partisan contest.
So does it matter if the Democrats throw brickbats at each other? I think it does. I think it hurts Westly. It was Westly, after all, who spent “tens of millions” saying he was a “different” kind of candidate. Now he’s spending tens of millions proving that he isn’t and wasn’t telling the truth. The substance of the attacks reveal less about Angelides than they do about Westly.
We know Angelides isn’t different – he’s a typical Democratic politician who supports government spending and would tax the rich to pay for it. And those of us who vote in Democratic primaries think that’s OK.
Bill Cavala was, until recently, Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.
He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received adoctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.
Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.
Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.
Comments
The ads re: Angelides raising taxes are pretty effective - who is paying for them??? Seems like early Arnold money.
Posted by: SKeane at May 22, 2006 02:56 PM
Bill, you pointed out why Phil Angelides doesnt have a chance against Arnold -- he's a "typical Democratic politician." Unfortunately, not just Democrats vote in the general election. So Phil can win the primary -- only to be slaughtered in the general. Gives me one more reason to vote for Westly.
Posted by: Robert at May 23, 2006 02:46 PM
Why you would vote for either of them, Arnold, Angelides or Westly, is beyond me.
Posted by: Fred Mangels at May 24, 2006 06:17 AM
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